Fact based stock research
Kirin (TSE:2503)

JP3258000003

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Kirin stock research in summary

kirinholdings.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Kirin (Brewers, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Kirin are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 27), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 33), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Kirin's financial characteristics. As the company Kirin's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 57) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 27) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 33), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 57% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	57
Growth Rank	27
Safety Rank	33
Combined Rank	23

Country	Japan
Industry	Brewers
Index	TOPIX 100, Water Efficiency, Nikkei 225
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Kirin

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	91	65	58	57
GROWTH
GROWTH	6	49	15	27
SAFETY
SAFETY	24	33	39	33
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	17	34	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	29	16	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Kirin is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	91	65	58	57
GROWTH
GROWTH	6	49	15	27
SAFETY
SAFETY	24	33	39	33
COMBINED
COMBINED	33	37	24	23

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Kirin the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), Kirin shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Kirin. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 70 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 70% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Kirin's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 45, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 45% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 56% of alternatives (only 44% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 29% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Kirin's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	94	46	43	44
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	68	63	64	70
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	74	33	36	45
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	90	88	81	71
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	91	65	58	57

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Kirin; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), Kirin shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Kirin. Sales Growth has a rank of 40, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 60% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 37, and Capital Growth with 37. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 49, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 51% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	11	54	27	40
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	43	58	37	37
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	60	43	37
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	26	17	41	49
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	6	49	15	27

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Kirin.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), the company Kirin has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Kirin is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Kirin. Liquidity is at 59, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 59% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 27, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 73% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 38, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 62% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with alternatives), Kirin has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	24	32	48	38
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	66	35	23	27
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	39	53	65	59
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	24	33	39	33

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Kirin and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	52	25	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	59	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	25	30	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	22	67	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	17	34	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Kirin.
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