Fact based stock research
National Express (LSE:NEX)
GB0006215205
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
National Express stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with investment alternatives), National Express (Trucking, United Kingdom) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of National Express are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 64 (better than 64% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 76) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 8), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on National Express's financial characteristics. As the company National Express's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 64) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 76), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 8) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | United Kingdom |
| Industry | Trucking |
| Index | FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, Energy Efficient, SDG 11, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 3, SDG 8, Sound Pay Europe |
| Size class | Large |
This stock has achievements: Gold Winner CEO, Top 10 Stock.
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: National Express
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 46 |
|
59 |
|
98 |
|
64 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 41 |
|
29 |
|
12 |
|
76 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 13 |
|
31 |
|
43 |
|
8 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
25 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
21 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with investment alternatives), National Express (Trucking, United Kingdom) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of National Express are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 64 (better than 64% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 76) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 8), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on National Express's financial characteristics. As the company National Express's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 64) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 76), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 8) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 46 |
|
59 |
|
98 |
|
64 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 41 |
|
29 |
|
12 |
|
76 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 13 |
|
31 |
|
43 |
|
8 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 29 |
|
24 |
|
46 |
|
48 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), National Express shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for National Express. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 93, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 93% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding National Express's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 60% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 90. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than National Express (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 64, is a buy recommendation based on National Express's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 70 |
|
65 |
|
95 |
|
93 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 36 |
|
59 |
|
72 |
|
60 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 68 |
|
49 |
|
97 |
|
90 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
65 |
|
90 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 46 |
|
59 |
|
98 |
|
64 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 76 (better than 76% compared with alternatives) for 2024, National Express shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for National Express. Sales Growth has a value of 62, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 62% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 59 and for Capital Growth with 62. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 66, which means they have been higher than 66% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 76, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, National Express exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 44 |
|
61 |
|
62 |
|
62 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 98 |
|
68 |
|
17 |
|
59 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
19 |
|
55 |
|
62 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 24 |
|
21 |
|
6 |
|
66 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 41 |
|
29 |
|
12 |
|
76 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 8 (better than 8% compared with alternatives), the company National Express has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of National Express is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for National Express. Liquidity is at 14, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 86% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 37, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 63% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 8 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 92% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with alternatives), National Express has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of National Express because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 45 |
|
68 |
|
62 |
|
37 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 8 |
|
23 |
|
5 |
|
8 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 11 |
|
23 |
|
69 |
|
14 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 13 |
|
31 |
|
43 |
|
8 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
86 |
|
91 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
26 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
59 |
|
30 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
4 |
|
3 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
25 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for National Express from November 14, 2024.
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