Fact based stock research
Serco (LSE:SRP)

GB0007973794

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Serco stock research in summary

serco.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with investment alternatives), Serco (Facility Services, United Kingdom) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Serco are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 56 (better than 56% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 12), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 38), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Serco's financial characteristics. As the company Serco's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 56) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 12) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 38), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 56% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	56
Growth Rank	12
Safety Rank	38
Combined Rank	14

Country	United Kingdom
Industry	Facility Services
Index	FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, Employee Focus EU
Size class	Medium

31-Jul-2025. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Serco

RESEARCH HISTORY	2022	2023	2024	2025
VALUE
VALUE	57	57	39	56
GROWTH
GROWTH	23	43	45	12
SAFETY
SAFETY	51	55	62	38
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	98	90	45	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	67	64	34	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 31-Jul-2025. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Dec-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Serco is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2022	2023	2024	2025
VALUE
VALUE	57	57	39	56
GROWTH
GROWTH	23	43	45	12
SAFETY
SAFETY	51	55	62	38
COMBINED
COMBINED	37	51	35	14

Last update of combined financial performance: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Serco the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 56 (better than 56% compared with alternatives), Serco shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Serco. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 66, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 66% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Serco's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 100% of alternatives (0% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 35 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 65% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 38, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 56, is a buy recommendation based on Serco's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Serco may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2022	2023	2024	2025
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	81	72	68	66
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	45	57	59	38
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	67	54	40	100
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	39	48	45	35
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	57	57	39	56

Last update of Value Rank: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Serco; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), Serco shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Serco. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 28, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 72% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 1, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 19. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 81% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 60, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 60% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 12, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Serco, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2022	2023	2024	2025
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	4	12	23	28
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	58	34	26	19
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	56	90	100	1
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	27	49	35	60
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	23	43	45	12

Last update of Growth Rank: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Serco.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 38 (better than 38% compared with alternatives), the company Serco has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Serco is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Serco. Liquidity is at 56, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 56% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 24, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 76% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 39, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 61% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with alternatives), Serco has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2022	2023	2024	2025
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	50	62	76	39
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	23	13	28	24
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	57	67	62	56
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	51	55	62	38

Last update of Safety Rank: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Serco and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2022	2023	2024	2025
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	86	35	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	40	39	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	86	94	40	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	83	76	72	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	98	90	45	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 31-Jul-2025. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Serco.
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