Fact based stock research
Serco (LSE:SRP)

GB0007973794

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Serco stock research in summary

serco.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with investment alternatives), Serco (Facility Services, United Kingdom) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Serco are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 66, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 39). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 71, is a buy recommendation based on Serco's financial characteristics. As the company Serco's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 67) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 39) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 66), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 67% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	67
Growth Rank	39
Safety Rank	66
Combined Rank	71

Country	United Kingdom
Industry	Facility Services
Index	FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, Employee Focus EU
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Serco

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	61	57	57	67
GROWTH
GROWTH	26	23	43	39
SAFETY
SAFETY	28	51	55	66
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	98	90	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	67	64	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Serco is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	61	57	57	67
GROWTH
GROWTH	26	23	43	39
SAFETY
SAFETY	28	51	55	66
COMBINED
COMBINED	39	37	51	71

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Serco the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), Serco shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Serco. Price-to-Sales is 81 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 81% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Serco's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 72% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 50. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Serco are expected to be higher than for 50% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 50). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation based on Serco's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Serco based on its detailed value metrics. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	78	81	72	81
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	89	45	57	72
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	50	67	54	50
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	48	39	48	50
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	61	57	57	67

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Serco; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), Serco shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Serco. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 100, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 36% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 13 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 87% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 36 and Stock Returns with a rank of 29 are also low (below 71% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Serco is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	52	4	12	13
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	7	58	34	36
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	56	90	100
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	32	27	49	29
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	26	23	43	39

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Serco.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 66 (better than 66% compared with alternatives), the company Serco has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Serco is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Serco. Leverage is at a rank of 74, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 74% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 64, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 64% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 29, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 71% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 66 (better than 66% compared with alternatives), Serco has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Serco. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Serco and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	35	50	62	74
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	40	23	13	29
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	41	57	67	64
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	28	51	55	66

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Serco and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	64	86	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	40	39	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	86	94	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	83	76	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	98	90	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Serco.
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