Fact based stock research
UPM (HLSE:UPM)

FI0009005987

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

UPM stock research in summary

upm.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 58 (better than 58% compared with investment alternatives), UPM (Paper Products, Finland) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of UPM are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 56 (better than 56% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 78, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 20). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 58, is a buy recommendation based on UPM's financial characteristics. As the company UPM's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 56) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 20) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 78), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 56% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	56
Growth Rank	20
Safety Rank	78
Combined Rank	58

Country	Finland
Industry	Paper Products
Index	OMX 25, Low Emissions, Customer Focus EU, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Low Waste, Nuclear, Recycling, Timber Industry
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Insight 2019-06-07, Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: UPM

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	60	31	41	56
GROWTH
GROWTH	31	33	37	20
SAFETY
SAFETY	56	89	63	78
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	64	84	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	64	76	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better UPM is in the corresponding investment strategy.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.

Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	60	31	41	56
GROWTH
GROWTH	31	33	37	20
SAFETY
SAFETY	56	89	63	78
COMBINED
COMBINED	49	47	55	58

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of UPM the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 56 (better than 56% compared with alternatives), UPM shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for UPM. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 51 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning UPM's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 41, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 41% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 79% of alternatives (only 21% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 10% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 56, is a buy recommendation based on UPM's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	33	19	13	21
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	51	26	46	51
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	49	49	42	41
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	90	71	76	90
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	60	31	41	56

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of UPM; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), UPM shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for UPM. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 62, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 62% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 28, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 72% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 28 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 28 (72% of alternative investments were better). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	12	38	63	28
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	53	79	38	62
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	14	9	28
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	45	51	49	28
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	31	33	37	20

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of UPM.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company UPM has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of UPM is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for UPM. Leverage is at a rank of 73, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 73% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 88, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 88% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 38, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 62% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives), UPM has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for UPM. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with UPM and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	61	82	64	73
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	39	53	31	38
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	62	81	74	88
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	56	89	63	78

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of UPM and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	25	47	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	78	69	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	40	80	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	76	77	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	64	84	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for UPM.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.