Fact based stock research
DRDGOLD (NYSE:DRD)
US26152H3012
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
DRDGOLD stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with investment alternatives), DRDGOLD (Gold Production, South Africa) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of DRDGOLD are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 82, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 92, is a strong buy recommendation based on DRDGOLD's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company DRDGOLD exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 93). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 82) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | South Africa |
| Industry | Gold Production |
| Index | Gold, JSE All Shares |
| Size class | Medium |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: DRDGOLD
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 82 |
|
47 |
|
46 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 3 |
|
45 |
|
59 |
|
93 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 96 |
|
99 |
|
97 |
|
82 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
18 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
57 |
|
92 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with investment alternatives), DRDGOLD (Gold Production, South Africa) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of DRDGOLD are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 82, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 92, is a strong buy recommendation based on DRDGOLD's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company DRDGOLD exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 93). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 82) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 82 |
|
47 |
|
46 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 3 |
|
45 |
|
59 |
|
93 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 96 |
|
99 |
|
97 |
|
82 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 90 |
|
83 |
|
80 |
|
92 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), DRDGOLD shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for DRDGOLD. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 78 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 78% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning DRDGOLD's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 46, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 46% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 70% of alternatives (only 30% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 50% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on DRDGOLD's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 59 |
|
50 |
|
1 |
|
30 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 83 |
|
52 |
|
74 |
|
78 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 50 |
|
48 |
|
51 |
|
46 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 76 |
|
67 |
|
92 |
|
50 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 82 |
|
47 |
|
46 |
|
37 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, DRDGOLD shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for DRDGOLD. Sales Growth has a value of 81, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 81% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 61 and for Capital Growth with 100. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 69, which means they have been higher than 69% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, DRDGOLD exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 11 |
|
85 |
|
51 |
|
81 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 39 |
|
78 |
|
64 |
|
61 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
31 |
|
37 |
|
100 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 8 |
|
9 |
|
63 |
|
69 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 3 |
|
45 |
|
59 |
|
93 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company DRDGOLD has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of DRDGOLD is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for DRDGOLD. Leverage is at a rank of 94, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 94% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 96, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 96% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 25, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives), DRDGOLD has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for DRDGOLD. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with DRDGOLD and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 96 |
|
94 |
|
92 |
|
94 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 36 |
|
71 |
|
67 |
|
25 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 79 |
|
96 |
|
90 |
|
96 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 96 |
|
99 |
|
97 |
|
82 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
70 |
|
74 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
18 |
|
66 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
18 |
|
79 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
18 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for DRDGOLD from November 14, 2024.
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