October 17, 2024
Top 10 Stock Aecon Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aecon – Top 10 Stock in Toronto Stock Exchange Index TSX Composite
Aecon is listed as a top 10 stock on October 17, 2024 in the market index TSX Composite because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 12 (12% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Aecon on October 17, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Construction & Engineering |
| Index | Human Rights, TSX Composite |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aecon Sell
| 360 METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 29 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 39 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 1 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 12 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aecon are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Aecon. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 100, which means that the share price of Aecon is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 100% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 29, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 39, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 61% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 99% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 1. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 12, Aecon is worse than 88% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Aecon shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 100. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 29), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 39), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 1) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Aecon is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of Aecon. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aecon negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aecon is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Aecon. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 45 (worse than 55% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 41 which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 10, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 90% of competitors). No wonder, the Professional Investors rank is only 3, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 97% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to stay away from Aecon, which may be due to a small company size but just as likely because of its relatively low Sentiment Rank. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 1 (less encouraging than 99% compared with investment alternatives), Aecon has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Investors should be careful with this stock right now. Further research is required if an investment is desired, because the facts found in the professional community are all negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aecon Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Aecon shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where three out of four indicators are above average for Aecon. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 97 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 97% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Aecon's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 94. Finally, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Aecon are expected to be higher than for 100% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 100). The only low rank is for expected profits with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 34, indicating that the market expects the company's profit to be low despite a high dividend. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on Aecon's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The low Profit Rank could result from a one-off charge, for instance, for an accident, a legal settlement, or a restructuring project. If the company keeps its dividends high, the low expected profit may be transitory. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Capital, and Dividends are reliable indicators for good stock price value, a low stock price. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aecon Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), Aecon shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aecon. Sales Growth has a rank of 78 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 78% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 89. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 21, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 79% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 89% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aecon Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 54 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 84 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 8 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), the company Aecon has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aecon is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Aecon.Leverage is at 54, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 54% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 84, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 8, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 92% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), Aecon has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Aecon Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 29 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 8 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 52 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Aecon (Construction & Engineering, Canada) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aecon are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 29), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 39), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation based on Aecon's financial characteristics. As the company Aecon's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 29) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 39), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 100% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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