Fact based stock research
Aflac (NYSE:AFL)

US0010551028

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Aflac stock research in summary

aflac.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Aflac (Life & Health Insurance, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aflac are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 19 (worse than 81% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 35) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 75), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Aflac's financial characteristics. As the company Aflac's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 19) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 35), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 75) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	19
Growth Rank	35
Safety Rank	75
Combined Rank	57

Country	USA
Industry	Life & Health Insurance
Index	Diversity USA, SDG 13, SDG 16, SDG 3, SDG 5, SDG 8, D.J. US Insurance, S&P 500
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Aflac

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	54	29	24	19
GROWTH
GROWTH	67	65	17	35
SAFETY
SAFETY	31	75	75	75
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	67	36	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	55	12	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Aflac is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	54	29	24	19
GROWTH
GROWTH	67	65	17	35
SAFETY
SAFETY	31	75	75	75
COMBINED
COMBINED	44	57	57	57

Last update of combined financial performance: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Aflac the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with alternatives), Aflac shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Aflac. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 69% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 11 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 89% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Aflac's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 20 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 80% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 26 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 74% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation based on Aflac's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Aflac? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Aflac only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	34	19	12	11
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	64	42	35	20
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	59	49	28	26
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	64	61	60	69
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	54	29	24	19

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Aflac; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 35 (better than 35% compared with alternatives), Aflac shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Aflac. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 59, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 48% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 8 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 92% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 48 and Stock Returns with a rank of 45 are also low (below 55% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 35, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Aflac is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	35	16	8	8
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	16	47	42	48
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	71	21	59
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	78	79	63	45
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	67	65	17	35

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Aflac.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2022, the company Aflac has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Aflac is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Aflac. Leverage is at a rank of 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 79, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 79% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 16, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives), Aflac has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Aflac. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Aflac and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	40	64	63	66
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	21	16	16	16
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	62	71	80	79
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	31	75	75	75

Last update of Safety Rank: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Aflac and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	24	26	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	92	42	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	93	78	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	20	19	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	67	36	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Aflac.
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