March 14, 2024
Top 10 Stock Air New Zealand Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Air New Zealand – Top 10 Stock in New Zealand Stock Exchange Index NZSX 50
Air New Zealand is listed as a top 10 stock on March 14, 2024 in the market index NZSX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 13 (13% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Air New Zealand on March 14, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Air New Zealand Sell
| 360 METRICS | March 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 97 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 16 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 21 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 1 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 13 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 13 (better than 13% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Air New Zealand are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Air New Zealand. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 97, which means that the share price of Air New Zealand is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 97% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 16, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 21, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 79% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 99% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 1. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 13, Air New Zealand is worse than 87% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Air New Zealand shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 97. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 16), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 21), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 1) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Air New Zealand is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of Air New Zealand. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Air New Zealand negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Air New Zealand is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Air New Zealand. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 1 which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 23, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 77% of competitors). No wonder, the Professional Investors rank is only 28, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 72% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to stay away from Air New Zealand, which may be due to a small company size but just as likely because of its relatively low Sentiment Rank. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 1 (less encouraging than 99% compared with investment alternatives), Air New Zealand has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Investors should be careful with this stock right now. Further research is required if an investment is desired, because the facts found in the professional community are all negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Air New Zealand Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Air New Zealand shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Air New Zealand. Price-to-Sales is 97 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 97% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Air New Zealand's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 62% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 70. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Air New Zealand are expected to be higher than for 83% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 83). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 97, is a buy recommendation based on Air New Zealand's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Air New Zealand based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Air New Zealand Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), Air New Zealand shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Air New Zealand. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 85, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 10% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 18 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 82% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 10 and Stock Returns with a rank of 17 are also low (below 83% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Air New Zealand is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Air New Zealand Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | March 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 13 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 6 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 71 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 21 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), the company Air New Zealand has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Air New Zealand is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Air New Zealand. Liquidity is at 71, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 71% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 6, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 94% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 13, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 87% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Air New Zealand has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Air New Zealand Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | March 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 97 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 16 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 34 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with investment alternatives), Air New Zealand (Airlines, New Zealand) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Air New Zealand are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 97 (better than 97% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 16), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 34, is a hold recommendation based on Air New Zealand's financial characteristics. As the company Air New Zealand's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 97) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 16) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 21), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 97% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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