October 24, 2024
Top 10 Stock Air New Zealand Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Air New Zealand – Top 10 Stock in New Zealand Stock Exchange Index NZSX 50
Air New Zealand is listed as a top 10 stock on October 24, 2024 in the market index NZSX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 12 (12% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Air New Zealand on October 24, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Air New Zealand Sell
| 360 METRICS | October 24, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 71 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 25 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 19 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 6 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 12 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Air New Zealand are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Air New Zealand. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 71, which means that the share price of Air New Zealand is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 71% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 25, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 19, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 81% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 94% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 6. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 12, Air New Zealand is worse than 88% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Air New Zealand shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 71. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 25), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 19), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 6) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Air New Zealand is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of Air New Zealand. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Air New Zealand negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 6 (better than 6% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Air New Zealand is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Air New Zealand. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts have found something to make them more positive about investing in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Air New Zealand. But the Professional Investors rank is low at 20, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 80% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Market Pulse is also low at a rank of 20, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 80% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 6 (less encouraging than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Air New Zealand has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. These are quite a few negative sentiment signals. One may want to trust the analysts that are changing their opinions. They may be early indications of better times, especially if the company is a smaller one. But If they are an extra large company, they should have more professional stockholders than are currently present. ...read more
Value Strategy: Air New Zealand Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), Air New Zealand shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where three out of four indicators are above average for Air New Zealand. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 97 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 97% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Air New Zealand's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 74. Finally, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Air New Zealand are expected to be higher than for 54% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 54). The only low rank is for expected profits with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 23, indicating that the market expects the company's profit to be low despite a high dividend. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 71, is a buy recommendation based on Air New Zealand's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The low Profit Rank could result from a one-off charge, for instance, for an accident, a legal settlement, or a restructuring project. If the company keeps its dividends high, the low expected profit may be transitory. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Capital, and Dividends are reliable indicators for good stock price value, a low stock price. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Air New Zealand Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 25 (better than 25% compared with alternatives), Air New Zealand shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Air New Zealand. Sales Growth has a rank of 60 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 60% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 1% of competitors with a rank of 97. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 1, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 99% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 13. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Air New Zealand Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | October 24, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 14 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 5 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 60 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 19 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), the company Air New Zealand has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Air New Zealand is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Air New Zealand. Liquidity is at 60, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 5, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 95% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 14, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 86% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with alternatives), Air New Zealand has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Air New Zealand Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 24, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 71 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 25 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 60 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 27 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with investment alternatives), Air New Zealand (Airlines, New Zealand) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Air New Zealand are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 71 (better than 71% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 25), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 19), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation based on Air New Zealand's financial characteristics. As the company Air New Zealand's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 71) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 25) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 19), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 71% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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