August 29, 2024
Top 10 Stock American Express Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: American Express – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones Industrial Average
American Express is listed as a top 10 stock on August 29, 2024 in the market index Dow Jones because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 58 (high 58% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for American Express on August 29, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Consumer Finance |
| Index | Dow Jones, Diversity USA, Renewables Users, S&P 500 |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View American Express Buy
| 360 METRICS | August 29, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 44 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 93 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 58 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 58 (better than 58% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock American Express are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for American Express. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 51% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 93, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 93% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 17, which means that the share price of American Express is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 83% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 44, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than those of 56% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 58, American Express is better positioned than 58% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 51), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 93), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take 100 minus the growth rank, you arrive at a possibly minimum level for the value rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the growth rank is above 60. Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes it reflects reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for American Express very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock American Express is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all four indicators above average for American Express. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 52 (better than 52% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive with a rank of 68, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better and recommending investing in the company. They are getting more optimistic about stock investments in American Express. The Professional Investors rank is 88, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 88% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Finally, Market Pulse has a rank of 80 which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the positive side when discussing this company (more positive news than for 80% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 93 (more positive than 93% compared with investment alternatives), American Express has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Since all market sentiment indicators are positive, the professional community highly recommends investment in the company. Does this mean American Express stocks are a safe investment? Far from it. Even professionals make mistakes. Especially in stock investing, there is a tendency to follow the leaders. Since trees don't grow to the heavens, such positive sentiment may also be interpreted as a danger sign. A lot of optimism can often be a sign of troubles to come, albeit unforeseen by most. ...read more
Value Strategy: American Express Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), American Express shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for American Express. Price-to-Sales is 43 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 57% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning American Express's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 8, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of American Express. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 28 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 51% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on American Express's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for American Express? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as American Express? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. American Express may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: American Express Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), American Express shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for American Express. Sales Growth has a rank of 53 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 53% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 58, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 89, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 99% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. ...read more
Safety Strategy: American Express Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | August 29, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 12 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 83 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 33 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 44 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 (better than 44% compared with alternatives), the company American Express has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of American Express is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for American Express and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 83, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 83% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 12, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 88% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 33, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 67% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with alternatives), American Express has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for American Express are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: American Express Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | August 29, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 51 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 33 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 24 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 24 (worse than 76% compared with investment alternatives), American Express (Consumer Finance, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of American Express are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 44, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 24, is a sell recommendation based on American Express's financial characteristics. As the company American Express shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (83% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 51% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 51). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for American Express, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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