Fact based stock research
American Airlines (NasdaqGS:AAL)

US02376R1023

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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American Airlines stock research in summary

americanairlines.gcs-web.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with investment alternatives), American Airlines (Airlines, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of American Airlines are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 95 (better than 95% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 57) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation based on American Airlines's financial characteristics. As the company American Airlines's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 95) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 57), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 10) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	95
Growth Rank	57
Safety Rank	10
Combined Rank	61

Country	USA
Industry	Airlines
Index	Energy Efficient, NASDAQ, S&P 500
Size class	XX-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: American Airlines

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	53	73	92	95
GROWTH
GROWTH	63	66	85	57
SAFETY
SAFETY	3	4	4	10
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	53	58	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	48	79	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better American Airlines is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	53	73	92	95
GROWTH
GROWTH	63	66	85	57
SAFETY
SAFETY	3	4	4	10
COMBINED
COMBINED	32	39	75	61

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of American Airlines the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 95 (better than 95% compared with alternatives) for 2024, American Airlines shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for American Airlines. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 93, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 93% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding American Airlines's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 95% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 100. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than American Airlines (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 95, is a buy recommendation based on American Airlines's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	93	93	93	93
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	7	71	87	95
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	100	95	100	100
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	53	73	92	95

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of American Airlines; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), American Airlines shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for American Airlines. Capital Growth has a rank of 85, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 25% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 61 (above 61% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 33, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 67% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 25. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for American Airlines, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	23	88	38	33
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	33	42	100	25
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	26	71	85
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	84	63	59	61
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	63	66	85	57

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of American Airlines.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), the company American Airlines has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of American Airlines is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for American Airlines. Liquidity is at 26, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 74% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 4, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 96% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 9 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 91% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with alternatives), American Airlines has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of American Airlines because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	10	2	4	4
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	1	37	7	9
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	8	15	18	26
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	3	4	4	10

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of American Airlines and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	15	27	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	97	79	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	48	88	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	24	27	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	53	58	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for American Airlines.
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