Fact based stock research
APA (ASX:APA)
AU000000APA1
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
APA stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 3 (worse than 97% compared with investment alternatives), APA (Gas Utilities, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of APA are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 7), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation based on APA's financial characteristics. As the company APA's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 13), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 7), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° ViewnewThis stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: APA
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 16 |
|
7 |
|
11 |
|
13 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 13 |
|
63 |
|
11 |
|
41 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 37 |
|
23 |
|
17 |
|
7 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
66 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
23 |
|
3 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 3 (worse than 97% compared with investment alternatives), APA (Gas Utilities, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of APA are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 7), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation based on APA's financial characteristics. As the company APA's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 13), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 7), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 16 |
|
7 |
|
11 |
|
13 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 13 |
|
63 |
|
11 |
|
41 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 37 |
|
23 |
|
17 |
|
7 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 10 |
|
7 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% compared with alternatives), APA shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for APA. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 98% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 19 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 81% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning APA's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 4 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 96% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 7 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 93% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation based on APA's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick APA? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose APA only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 14 |
|
9 |
|
13 |
|
19 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 20 |
|
16 |
|
3 |
|
4 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 8 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
7 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 86 |
|
75 |
|
99 |
|
98 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 16 |
|
7 |
|
11 |
|
13 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), APA shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for APA. While Sales Growth ranks at 84, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 84% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 43, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 57% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 31. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 21 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 79% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 23 |
|
43 |
|
92 |
|
84 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 41 |
|
39 |
|
36 |
|
43 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
48 |
|
5 |
|
31 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 34 |
|
73 |
|
3 |
|
21 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 13 |
|
63 |
|
11 |
|
41 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), the company APA has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of APA is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for APA. Liquidity is at 10, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 8, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 92% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 11 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 89% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with alternatives), APA has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of APA because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 38 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
8 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 38 |
|
57 |
|
41 |
|
11 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 33 |
|
29 |
|
15 |
|
10 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 37 |
|
23 |
|
17 |
|
7 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
52 |
|
42 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
35 |
|
24 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
72 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
60 |
|
74 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
66 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for APA from December 19, 2024.
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