Fact based stock research
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI)
US03762U1051
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (REITs: Mortgage, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 71 (better than 71% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's financial characteristics. As the company Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 71) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 10), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 71% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | REITs: Mortgage |
| Index | |
| Size class | Medium |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 90 |
|
95 |
|
73 |
|
71 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
9 |
|
29 |
|
3 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
19 |
|
43 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (REITs: Mortgage, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 71 (better than 71% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's financial characteristics. As the company Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 71) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 10), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 71% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 90 |
|
95 |
|
73 |
|
71 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
9 |
|
29 |
|
3 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 81 |
|
25 |
|
25 |
|
25 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price to earnings, P/E ratio) is 62 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 62% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's profit levels. The same is valid for the expected Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 78, and for Dividend Yield with a Dividend Yield Rank of 86. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the stock price is higher than average as regards expected revenues; only 61% of all competitors have an even higher stock price as regards to sales revenues (a Price-to-Sales Rank of 39). Profits, the level of invested capital, and dividend policy suggest that this stock is attractively priced. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 71, is a buy recommendation based on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since it is on the expensive side for Price-to-Sales, it may mean that Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has pricing power in its distribution market because it can charge higher prices than its competitors. If this is the case, all four value indicators are positive signals for purchasing Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares. 9. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 55 |
|
52 |
|
37 |
|
39 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 63 |
|
84 |
|
70 |
|
62 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 78 |
|
88 |
|
80 |
|
78 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 100 |
|
89 |
|
92 |
|
86 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 90 |
|
95 |
|
73 |
|
71 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 3 (better than 3% compared with alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. Sales Growth has a rank of 6, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 94% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 4, and Capital Growth with 15. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 19, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 81% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 94 |
|
16 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 50 |
|
8 |
|
26 |
|
4 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
13 |
|
75 |
|
15 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 94 |
|
61 |
|
59 |
|
19 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 97 |
|
9 |
|
29 |
|
3 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), the company Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. Liquidity is at 17, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 83% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 24, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 76% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 35 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with alternatives), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
18 |
|
20 |
|
24 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 82 |
|
35 |
|
35 |
|
35 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 9 |
|
13 |
|
9 |
|
17 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 6 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
16 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
23 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
33 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
6 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance from November 14, 2024.
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