September 12, 2024
Top 10 Stock Aviva Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aviva – Top 10 Stock in FTSE 100 Index
Aviva is listed as a top 10 stock on September 12, 2024 in the market index FTSE 100 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit above-average performance, the professional market sentiment is positive and it may be a solid investment proposition, especially if a growth recovery is to be expected soon. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 39 (39% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Aviva on September 12, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Industry | Multi-line Insurance |
| Index | FTSE All Shares, FTSE 100, FTSE 350, Dividends Europe, Employee Focus EU, Diversity Europe, Renewables Users |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aviva Hold
| 360 METRICS | September 12, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 63 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 45 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 39 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 75 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aviva are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for Aviva. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 63, which means that the share price of Aviva is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 63% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 75, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 75% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 45, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 39, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 61 comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 39, Aviva is worse than 61% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit above-average performance, but the other half are below market levels. The company enjoys a good value (Value Rank of 63) and positive market sentiment in the professional investor community (Sentiment Rank of 75), but growth expectations are below-average (Growth Rank of 45) and the financing structure is on the risky side(Safety Rank of 39). This combination is rather dangerous, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. The current low growth level may be temporary, because professionals are actually optimistic (positive sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. Companies with less growth typically have a lower price than fast-growing competitors. Even though professional investor sentiment is strong, we recommend further evaluating whether the future of Aviva is as challenging as the stock's low price suggests. Since the professional community is optimistic, the stock might just be going through a more challenging phase now, indicating that timing might be good now. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aviva very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2022, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aviva is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Aviva. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 46 (worse than 54% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 89, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Aviva. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 85, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 85% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 35, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 65% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 75 (more positive than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Aviva has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Aviva. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aviva Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), Aviva shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Aviva. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 87, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 87% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Aviva's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 71, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 71% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 53% of alternatives (only 47% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 62% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation based on Aviva's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aviva Growth Momentum low
| GROWTH METRICS | September 12, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 31 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 61 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 25 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 89 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 45 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), Aviva shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aviva. Profit Growth has a rank of 61, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 61% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 89 (above 89% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 31, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 69% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 25. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Aviva. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aviva Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | September 12, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 27 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 68 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 35 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), the company Aviva has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aviva is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Aviva and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 68, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 68% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 27, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 73% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 35, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 65% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), Aviva has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Aviva are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Aviva Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 12, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 63 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 45 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 35 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 85 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 85 (better than 85% compared with investment alternatives), Aviva (Multi-line Insurance, United Kingdom) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Aviva are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 45), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 39), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 85, is a strong buy recommendation based on Aviva's financial characteristics. As the company Aviva's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 63) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 45) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 39), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 63% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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