September 12, 2024
Top 10 Stock BHP Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: BHP – Top 10 Stock in Iron & Steel Mining and Production
BHP is listed as a top 10 stock on September 12, 2024 in the market index Iron because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company enjoys a positive professional investor sentiment, but all financial facts speak against a stock purchase. This is probably an investment into the future. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 19 (19% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for BHP on September 12, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Australia |
| Industry | Diversified Metals & Mining |
| Index | ASX 100, ASX 200, ASX 300, ASX 50, FTSE All Shares, FTSE 100, FTSE 350, Low Emissions, Copper, Electromobility, Human Rights, Iron, Zinc, Silver, Uranium, Water Efficiency |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View BHP Sell
| 360 METRICS | September 12, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 41 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 23 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 34 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 51 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 19 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock BHP are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for BHP. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 51% of alternative investment opportunities. But all other ranks are below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a rank of 41, which means that the share price of BHP is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 23, meaning that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. This means that growth is lower than for 23% of competitors in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 34 which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 66% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 19, BHP is worse than 81% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that BHP shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 51) is above-average, and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below peers, the stock investing proposition case is rather weak. The stock price is expensive for a company of this size in this industry, visible in the below-average Value Rank. Growth is below the competition based on the Growth Rank, and the company has more debt than other companies, according to the Safety Rank. So the question becomes: How important is the Sentiment Rank when all others are below average? When it comes to growth, the low rating might be justified if growth is expected in the future and not yet reflected in current performance. This is often the case for companies with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In the early phases, these companies are expensive compared with their size and may have a lot of debt on their books, as is the case here, as seen in the low Value and Safety Ranks. Future growth may be the strongest investment rationale in this case, which is only reflected by institutional investors' opinions. You pay more than the market average for this stock and invest in a rather debt-loaded enterprise, but it may be worth it if the future of BHP̣ is bright. A small investment might be justified, but proceed with caution. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for BHP positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock BHP is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for BHP. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 28 (worse than 72% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 18, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. Other sentiment indicators are positive: The Professional Investors rank is 55, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 55% of alternative investment opportunities. So, pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 85, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 85% of competitors). While stock research analysts are getting ever more critical, many professional investors are committed to BHP and the professional news channels are on the positive side. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 51 (more positive than 51% compared with investment alternatives), BHP has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical, while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: BHP Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), BHP shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for BHP. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 83% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 16 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 84% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning BHP's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 42 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 58% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 7 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 93% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on BHP's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick BHP? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose BHP only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: BHP Growth Momentum negative
| GROWTH METRICS | September 12, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 18 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 29 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 64 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 39 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 23 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), BHP shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for BHP. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 64, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 29% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 18 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 82% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 29 and Stock Returns with a rank of 39 are also low (below 61% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for BHP is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: BHP Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | September 12, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 34 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 29 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 73 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 34 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 34 (better than 34% compared with alternatives), the company BHP has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of BHP is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for BHP. Liquidity is at 73, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 73% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 29, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 71% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 34, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 66% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with alternatives), BHP has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: BHP Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 12, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 41 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 23 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 73 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 19 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with investment alternatives), BHP (Diversified Metals & Mining, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of BHP are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 34), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation based on BHP's financial characteristics. As the company BHP's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 41), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 34), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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