Fact based stock research
Canfor (TSX:CFP)

CA1375761048

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Canfor stock research in summary

canfor.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 36 (worse than 64% compared with investment alternatives), Canfor (Forest Products, Canada) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Canfor are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 59 (better than 59% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 64, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 7). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 36, is a hold recommendation based on Canfor's financial characteristics. As the company Canfor's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 59) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 7) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 64), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 59% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	59
Growth Rank	7
Safety Rank	64
Combined Rank	36

Country	Canada
Industry	Forest Products
Index	Renewables Users, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 15, SDG 5, SDG 8, Timber Industry, TSX Composite
Size class	X-Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Canfor

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	73	51	51	59
GROWTH
GROWTH	93	73	33	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	100	94	100	64
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	65	26	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	93	63	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Canfor is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	73	51	51	59
GROWTH
GROWTH	93	73	33	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	100	94	100	64
COMBINED
COMBINED	98	84	77	36

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Canfor the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Canfor shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Canfor. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 79, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 79% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding Canfor's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 97% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 94. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than Canfor (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation based on Canfor's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	80	70	78	79
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	98	91	97	97
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	80	82	97	94
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	73	51	51	59

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Canfor; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), Canfor shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Canfor. Sales Growth has a rank of 12, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 88% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 6, and Capital Growth with 29. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 43, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 57% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	86	27	82	12
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	17	77	12	6
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	51	50	29
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	84	73	17	43
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	93	73	33	7

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Canfor.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), the company Canfor has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Canfor is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Canfor.Leverage is at 82, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 82% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 85, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), Canfor has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Canfor more challenging. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	100	76	90	82
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	65	75	89	85
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	98	79	88	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	100	94	100	64

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Canfor and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	92	97	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	4	25	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	5	4	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	98	25	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	65	26	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Canfor.
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