Fact based stock research
Carlsberg (CPSE:CARL B)

DK0010181759

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Carlsberg stock research in summary

carlsberggroup.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with investment alternatives), Carlsberg (Brewers, Denmark) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Carlsberg are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 29, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 67). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 35, is a hold recommendation based on Carlsberg's financial characteristics. As the company Carlsberg shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 29 (71% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 67% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 67). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 29 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Carlsberg, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	29
Growth Rank	67
Safety Rank	29
Combined Rank	35

Country	Denmark
Industry	Brewers
Index	OMX C20, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Insight 2017-05-19, Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Carlsberg

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	76	29	30	29
GROWTH
GROWTH	29	71	23	67
SAFETY
SAFETY	1	47	35	29
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	19	45	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	23	10	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Carlsberg is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	76	29	30	29
GROWTH
GROWTH	29	71	23	67
SAFETY
SAFETY	1	47	35	29
COMBINED
COMBINED	16	45	12	35

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Carlsberg the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Carlsberg. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 72% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 36 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 64% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Carlsberg's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 27 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 73% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 11 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 89% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on Carlsberg's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Carlsberg? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Carlsberg only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	71	22	20	36
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	74	19	25	27
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	43	17	15	11
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	68	57	68	72
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	76	29	30	29

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Carlsberg; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Carlsberg. Sales Growth has a rank of 100 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 100% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 23% of competitors with a rank of 98. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 23, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 77% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 27. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	41	73	42	100
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	50	31	15	23
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	74	69	98
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	52	77	39	27
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	29	71	23	67

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Carlsberg.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), the company Carlsberg has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Carlsberg is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Carlsberg. Liquidity is at 82, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 82% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 11, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 89% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 11, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 89% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	27	50	30	11
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	4	13	7	11
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	73	77	83	82
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	1	47	35	29

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Carlsberg and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	38	64	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	23	47	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	35	17	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	48	60	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	19	45	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Carlsberg.
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