March 7, 2024
Top 10 Stock Cascades Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Cascades – Top 10 Stock in Toronto Stock Exchange Index TSX Composite
Cascades is listed as a top 10 stock on March 07, 2024 in the market index TSX Composite because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 22 (22% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Cascades on March 07, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Paper Packaging |
| Index | Energy Efficient, TSX Composite |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Cascades Sell
| 360 METRICS | March 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 12 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 37 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 19 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 22 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 22 (better than 22% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Cascades are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Cascades. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 100, which means that the share price of Cascades is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 100% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 12, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 37, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 63% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 81% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 19. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 22, Cascades is worse than 78% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Cascades shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 100. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 12), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 37), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 19) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Cascades is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of Cascades. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Cascades negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Cascades is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and half above average for Cascades. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 20 (worse than 80% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 2, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. In addition, the Professional Investors rank is 15, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 85% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. The only positive sentiment indicator for Cascades is Market Pulse, with a rank of 78, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 78% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 19 (less encouraging than 81% compared with investment alternatives), Cascades has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Cascades Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Cascades shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Cascades. Price-to-Sales is 93 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 93% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Cascades's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 81% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 93. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Cascades are expected to be higher than for 92% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 92). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on Cascades's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Cascades based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Cascades Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), Cascades shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Cascades. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 100, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 100% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 10, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 90% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 27 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 42 (58% of alternative investments were better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 12, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Cascades Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | March 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 29 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 72 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 24 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 37 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 37 (better than 37% compared with alternatives), the company Cascades has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Cascades is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Cascades and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 72, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 72% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 29, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 71% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 24, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 76% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Cascades has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Cascades are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Cascades Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | March 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 12 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 24 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 38 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with investment alternatives), Cascades (Paper Packaging, Canada) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Cascades are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 12), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 37), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 38, is a hold recommendation based on Cascades's financial characteristics. As the company Cascades's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 12) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 37), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 100% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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