October 17, 2024
Top 10 Stock Cascades Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Cascades – Top 10 Stock in Toronto Stock Exchange Index TSX Composite
Cascades is listed as a top 10 stock on October 17, 2024 in the market index TSX Composite because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 33 (33% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Cascades on October 17, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Paper Packaging |
| Index | Energy Efficient, TSX Composite |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Cascades Hold
| 360 METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 23 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 39 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 19 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 33 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Cascades are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Cascades. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 100, which means that the share price of Cascades is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 100% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 23, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 39, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 61% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 81% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 19. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 33, Cascades is worse than 67% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 100. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 23), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 39), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 19) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Cascades is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of Cascades. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Cascades negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Cascades is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and above average for Cascades. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50 which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Cascades. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 54, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive in their discussions about this company (more positive news than for 54% of competitors). Only professional investors tend to be absent with a Professional Investors rank of 26, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 74% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. But that could also be due to the size of the company. Professional investors tend to invest in XL and XXL companies. If the company is smaller than that, that fact alone may explain why there are fewer pros present. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 19 (less encouraging than 81% compared with investment alternatives), Cascades has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Since analysts are getting more optimistic and the professional communication channels are positive, it may be an indication of a company that has the difficult times behind it or the stocks’ value is improving. For medium to smaller companies, the positive sentiment indicators outshine the negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Cascades Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Cascades shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Cascades. Price-to-Sales is 95 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 95% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Cascades's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 87% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 91. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Cascades are expected to be higher than for 95% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 95). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on Cascades's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Cascades based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Cascades Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), Cascades shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Cascades. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 87, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 10% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 41 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 59% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 10 and Stock Returns with a rank of 9 are also low (below 91% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Cascades is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Cascades Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 28 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 67 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 27 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), the company Cascades has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Cascades is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Cascades and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 67, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 67% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 28, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 72% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 27, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 73% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), Cascades has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Cascades are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Cascades Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 23 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 27 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 61 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Cascades (Paper Packaging, Canada) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Cascades are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 39), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation based on Cascades's financial characteristics. As the company Cascades's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 39), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 100% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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