Fact based stock research
Cerence (NasdaqGS:CRNC)
US1567271093
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Cerence stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Cerence (Application Software, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Cerence are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 4) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 61), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Cerence's financial characteristics. As the company Cerence's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 46) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 4), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 61) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Application Software |
| Index | NASDAQ |
| Size class | Medium |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Cerence
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 42 |
|
65 |
|
79 |
|
46 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 86 |
|
27 |
|
21 |
|
4 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 7 |
|
44 |
|
83 |
|
61 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
57 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
49 |
|
58 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Cerence (Application Software, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Cerence are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 4) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 61), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Cerence's financial characteristics. As the company Cerence's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 46) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 4), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 61) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 42 |
|
65 |
|
79 |
|
46 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 86 |
|
27 |
|
21 |
|
4 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 7 |
|
44 |
|
83 |
|
61 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 50 |
|
34 |
|
85 |
|
21 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with alternatives), Cerence shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Cerence. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 83, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 83% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Cerence's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 78% of alternatives (22% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 8, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 46, is a hold recommendation based on Cerence's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Cerence may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 40 |
|
60 |
|
84 |
|
83 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 52 |
|
56 |
|
83 |
|
8 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 76 |
|
78 |
|
89 |
|
78 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 42 |
|
65 |
|
79 |
|
46 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 4 (better than 4% compared with alternatives), Cerence shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Cerence. Sales Growth has a rank of 26, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 74% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 8, and Capital Growth with 4. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 8, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 92% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 47 |
|
75 |
|
4 |
|
26 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
35 |
|
94 |
|
8 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
43 |
|
16 |
|
4 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 83 |
|
17 |
|
19 |
|
8 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 86 |
|
27 |
|
21 |
|
4 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), the company Cerence has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Cerence is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Cerence. Refinancing is at 74, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 74% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 60, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 11, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 89% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), Cerence has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Cerence could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Cerence and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 12 |
|
37 |
|
46 |
|
11 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 43 |
|
45 |
|
73 |
|
74 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 36 |
|
50 |
|
48 |
|
60 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 7 |
|
44 |
|
83 |
|
61 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
74 |
|
20 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
67 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
13 |
|
18 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
68 |
|
53 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
57 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Cerence from December 19, 2024.
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