August 10, 2023
Top 10 Stock Ciputra Development Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Ciputra Development – Top 10 Stock in Real Estate in Growth Markets
Ciputra Development is listed as a top 10 stock on August 10, 2023 in the market index R/E Growth Markets because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is safely financed and the professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 49 (49% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Ciputra Development on August 10, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Indonesia |
| Industry | Real Estate Development |
| Index | R/E Growth Markets |
| Size class | Medium |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Ciputra Development Hold
| 360 METRICS | August 10, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 46 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 41 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 98 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 69 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 49 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Ciputra Development are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half below and half above average for Ciputra Development. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 69, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 69% of alternative investment opportunities. It also rates well regarding its financing structure, with the consolidated Safety Rank at 98 or better than 98% of its peers when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the stock is expensive and expects low growth. The consolidated Value Rank is only 46, meaning that the share price of Ciputra Development is on the high side, compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth,and stock returns, with its Growth Rank at 41. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 49, Ciputra Development is worse than 51% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, namely the positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 69) and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 98), the case for investing in this stock needs further thought. The Value and the Safety Ranks are below average. The Safety Rank is the least critical of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average sentiment? This may be a case where growth is in the future, not yet reflected in current performance. Companies that might fall into this category are those with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In early phases, they are expensive relative to their size and have a lot of capital on their books, as is the case here. Investors expect a better future and are willing to pay a higher price than is warranted by the current company size. These higher prices drive stock price value down in the short term. In this case, future growth may be the strongest driver of the investment case, reflected by institutional investors' opinions. With a weak Value Rank, the question is how much to sacrifice value at the cost of positive sentiment. Sometimes market sentiment is just hype, but sometimes it is right. You pay more than market-average for this stock, but it may be worth it, if the future of Ciputra Developmenṭ is bright. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Ciputra Development positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Ciputra Development is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Ciputra Development. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 88 (better than 88% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic. Obermatt Market Pulse further supports this with a rank of 60, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are generally positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 60% of competitors). But there are few stock holdings by institutional investors. The Professional Investors rank is low at 49, which means that currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 51% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 69 (more positive than 69% compared with investment alternatives), Ciputra Development has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. Not having too many professionals invested in Ciputra Development may be less of an issue, especially if the stock is from a smaller company where professionals typically invest less. It is natural for professional investors to focus on large and extra-large companies, as they provide more safety. Smaller companies attract fewer professionals in the shareholder community. Overall, the signals from the professionals are still quite favorable for investments in Ciputra Development. ...read more
Value Strategy: Ciputra Development Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with alternatives), Ciputra Development shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Ciputra Development. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 64, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 64% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Ciputra Development's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 56% of alternatives (44% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 30 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 70% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 47, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 46, is a hold recommendation based on Ciputra Development's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Ciputra Development may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). ...read more
Growth Strategy: Ciputra Development Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), Ciputra Development shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Ciputra Development. Capital Growth has a rank of 100, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 22% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 63 (above 63% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 6, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 94% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 22. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Ciputra Development, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Ciputra Development Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | August 10, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 69 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 78 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 100 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 98 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company Ciputra Development has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Ciputra Development is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Ciputra Development. Leverage is at 69, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 69% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 78, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 78% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 100, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 100% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives), Ciputra Development has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Ciputra Development Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | August 10, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 46 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 41 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 59 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with investment alternatives), Ciputra Development (Real Estate Development, Indonesia) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ciputra Development are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 98), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation based on Ciputra Development's financial characteristics. As the company Ciputra Development's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 46) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 98) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.