Fact based stock research
Deutsche Post (XTRA:DPW)

DE0005552004

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

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Deutsche Post stock research in summary

dpdhl.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Deutsche Post (Air Freight & Logistics, Germany) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Deutsche Post are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 47) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 57), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Deutsche Post's financial characteristics. As the company Deutsche Post's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 47) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 47), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 57) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	n/a
Growth Rank	n/a
Safety Rank	n/a
Combined Rank	n/a

Country	Germany
Industry	Air Freight & Logistics
Index	CDAX, DAX 40, EURO STOXX 50, Low Emissions, Customer Focus EU, Dividends Europe, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights
Size class	XX-Large

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Research History: Deutsche Post

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	44	55	40	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	81	37	42	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	47	63	65	n/a
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	57	90	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	61	80	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: . Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: . Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Deutsche Post is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	44	55	40	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	81	37	42	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	47	63	65	n/a
COMBINED
COMBINED	54	54	42	n/a

Last update of combined financial performance: . Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Deutsche Post the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with alternatives), Deutsche Post shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Deutsche Post. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 66, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 66% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Deutsche Post's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 73, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 73% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 70% of alternatives (only 30% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 66% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Deutsche Post's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	43	61	62	n/a
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	54	54	34	n/a
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	14	27	34	n/a
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	78	76	60	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	44	55	40	n/a

Last update of Value Rank: . Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Deutsche Post; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 47 (better than 47% compared with alternatives), Deutsche Post shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Deutsche Post. Capital Growth has a rank of 65, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 27% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 65 (above 65% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 42, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 58% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 27. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Deutsche Post, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	77	18	44	n/a
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	64	55	28	n/a
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	43	41	n/a
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	61	61	74	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	81	37	42	n/a

Last update of Growth Rank: . Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Deutsche Post.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), the company Deutsche Post has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Deutsche Post is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Deutsche Post. Leverage is at a rank of 62, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 62% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 70, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 70% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 35, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), Deutsche Post has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Deutsche Post. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Deutsche Post and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	57	50	66	n/a
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	26	41	39	n/a
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	62	77	71	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	47	63	65	n/a

Last update of Safety Rank: . Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Deutsche Post and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	74	64	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	18	83	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	13	64	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	94	71	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	57	90	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: . Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Deutsche Post.
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