Fact based stock research
First National Financial (TSX:FN)

CA33564P1036

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

First National Financial stock research in summary

firstnational.ca

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with investment alternatives), First National Financial (Thrifts & Mortgage Finance, Canada) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of First National Financial are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 78), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 75, is a strong buy recommendation based on First National Financial's financial characteristics. As the company First National Financial's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 43) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 78) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	43
Growth Rank	49
Safety Rank	78
Combined Rank	75

Country	Canada
Industry	Thrifts & Mortgage Finance
Index
Size class	Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: First National Financial

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	42	53	65	43
GROWTH
GROWTH	80	35	53	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	9	21	21	78
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	25	47	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	27	51	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better First National Financial is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	42	53	65	43
GROWTH
GROWTH	80	35	53	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	9	21	21	78
COMBINED
COMBINED	39	46	46	75

Last update of combined financial performance: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of First National Financial the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), First National Financial shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for First National Financial. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 59, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 59% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning First National Financial's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 54% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 95 (dividends are expected to be higher than 95% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 90% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for First National Financial to 10. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on First National Financial's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	38	55	53	59
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	36	50	71	54
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	8	5	11	10
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	98	93	94	95
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	42	53	65	43

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of First National Financial; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), First National Financial shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for First National Financial. Sales Growth has a rank of 59 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 59% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 18% of competitors with a rank of 69. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 18, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 82% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 41. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	95	36	30	59
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	40	87	18
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	45	51	69
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	48	37	51	41
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	80	35	53	49

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of First National Financial.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company First National Financial has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of First National Financial is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for First National Financial. Refinancing is at 79, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 79% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 91, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 10, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 90% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives), First National Financial has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and First National Financial could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with First National Financial and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	2	10	10	10
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	70	83	79	79
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	7	10	10	91
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	9	21	21	78

Last update of Safety Rank: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of First National Financial and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	22	40	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	23	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	65	65	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	30	17	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	25	47	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for First National Financial.
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