August 3, 2023
Top 10 Stock Fletcher Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Fletcher – Top 10 Stock in New Zealand Stock Exchange Index NZSX 50
Fletcher is listed as a top 10 stock on August 03, 2023 in the market index NZSX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While half the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, investor sentiment is negative and growth performance is below market average, both a sign for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 52 (high 52% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Fletcher on August 03, 2023.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | New Zealand |
| Industry | Building Products |
| Index | ASX 200, ASX 300, Low Emissions, NZSX 50 |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Fletcher Buy
| 360 METRICS | August 3, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 89 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 11 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 68 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 45 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 52 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Fletcher are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for Fletcher. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 89, which means that the share price of Fletcher is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 89% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 68. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 45. Professional investors are more confident in 55% other stocks. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 11, which means that the company is below average in terms of growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. 89 of its competitors have better growth. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 52, Fletcher is better positioned than 52% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. The picture is mixed here. The stock seems to be a good value (Value Rank of 89), and the financing structure is on the safer side (Safety Rank of 68). However, sentiment in the professional investor community is below-average (Sentiment Rank of 45), as is the growth momentum for the company (Growth Rank of 11). Since the company is good value and the share price low, it should attract investors, yet professionals are skeptical. Even though the financing structure is not as important as Value, Growth, and Sentiment, investors should still be careful with this decision and conduct further research if they are serious about investing in this company. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Fletcher only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Fletcher is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and the other half above average for Fletcher. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 42 (worse than 58% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 45, which means that stock research experts are getting more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 37, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 63% of competitors). On the upside, the Professional Investors rank is 86, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 86% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. This could be due to a large company size, which could contribute to the higher share of professional investors in the company. If this is not the case, the low sentiment ranks are more challenging to explain. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 45 (less encouraging than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Fletcher has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. Should the company be on the smaller side, the presence of professional investors could be reassuring. That would make Fletcher stock something like a hidden gem. Investors should make sure with further research that this is true, because all other sentiment indicators are negative which is a sign for caution. ...read more
Value Strategy: Fletcher Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 89 (better than 89% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Fletcher shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Fletcher. Price-to-Sales is 86 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 86% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Fletcher's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 52% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 66. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Fletcher are expected to be higher than for 96% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 96). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 89, is a buy recommendation based on Fletcher's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Fletcher based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Fletcher Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), Fletcher shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Fletcher. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 7, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 93% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 23, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 30. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 70% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 55, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 55% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Fletcher, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Fletcher Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | August 3, 2023 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 32 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 67 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 46 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 68 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 68 (better than 68% compared with alternatives), the company Fletcher has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Fletcher is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Fletcher and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 67, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 67% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 32, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 68% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 46, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 54% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 68 (better than 68% compared with alternatives), Fletcher has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Fletcher are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Fletcher Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | August 3, 2023 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 89 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 11 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 46 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 66 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 66 (better than 66% compared with investment alternatives), Fletcher (Building Products, New Zealand) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Fletcher are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 89 (better than 89% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 68, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 66, is a buy recommendation based on Fletcher's financial characteristics. As the company Fletcher's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 89) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 68), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 89% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. ...read more
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