October 24, 2024
Top 10 Stock Fletcher Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Fletcher – Top 10 Stock in New Zealand Stock Exchange Index NZSX 50
Fletcher is listed as a top 10 stock on October 24, 2024 in the market index NZSX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 15 (15% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Fletcher on October 24, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | New Zealand |
| Industry | Building Products |
| Index | ASX 200, ASX 300, Low Emissions, NZSX 50 |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Fletcher Sell
| 360 METRICS | October 24, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 85 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 3 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 43 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 1 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 15 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 15 (better than 15% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Fletcher are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Fletcher. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 85, which means that the share price of Fletcher is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 85% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 3, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 43, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 57% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 99% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 1. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 15, Fletcher is worse than 85% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Fletcher shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 85. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 3), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 43), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 1) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Fletcher is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of Fletcher. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Fletcher negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Fletcher is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Fletcher. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 3 which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 1, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 99% of competitors). No wonder, the Professional Investors rank is only 9, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 91% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to stay away from Fletcher, which may be due to a small company size but just as likely because of its relatively low Sentiment Rank. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 1 (less encouraging than 99% compared with investment alternatives), Fletcher has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Investors should be careful with this stock right now. Further research is required if an investment is desired, because the facts found in the professional community are all negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Fletcher Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 85 (better than 85% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Fletcher shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where three out of four indicators are above average for Fletcher. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 87 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 87% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Fletcher's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 86. Finally, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Fletcher are expected to be higher than for 67% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 67). The only low rank is for expected profits with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 47, indicating that the market expects the company's profit to be low despite a high dividend. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 85, is a buy recommendation based on Fletcher's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The low Profit Rank could result from a one-off charge, for instance, for an accident, a legal settlement, or a restructuring project. If the company keeps its dividends high, the low expected profit may be transitory. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Capital, and Dividends are reliable indicators for good stock price value, a low stock price. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Fletcher Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 3 (better than 3% compared with alternatives), Fletcher shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Fletcher. Sales Growth has a rank of 17, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 83% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 20, and Capital Growth with 46. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 5, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 95% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Fletcher Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | October 24, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 20 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 67 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 38 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 43 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), the company Fletcher has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Fletcher is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Fletcher and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 67, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 67% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 20, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 80% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 38, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 62% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), Fletcher has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Fletcher are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Fletcher Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 24, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 85 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 3 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 38 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 43 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Fletcher (Building Products, New Zealand) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Fletcher are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 85 (better than 85% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 43), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on Fletcher's financial characteristics. As the company Fletcher's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 85) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 43), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 85% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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