Fact based stock research
GrainCorp (ASX:GNC)
AU000000GNC9
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
GrainCorp stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with investment alternatives), GrainCorp (Food Distributors, Australia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of GrainCorp are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 91), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 88), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 98, is a strong buy recommendation based on GrainCorp's financial characteristics. As the company GrainCorp's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 67), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 91), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 88), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of GrainCorp. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: GrainCorp
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 97 |
|
79 |
|
77 |
|
67 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
37 |
|
9 |
|
91 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 61 |
|
72 |
|
86 |
|
88 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
44 |
|
53 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
61 |
|
63 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with investment alternatives), GrainCorp (Food Distributors, Australia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of GrainCorp are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 91), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 88), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 98, is a strong buy recommendation based on GrainCorp's financial characteristics. As the company GrainCorp's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 67), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 91), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 88), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of GrainCorp. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 97 |
|
79 |
|
77 |
|
67 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
37 |
|
9 |
|
91 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 61 |
|
72 |
|
86 |
|
88 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 100 |
|
72 |
|
68 |
|
98 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), GrainCorp shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for GrainCorp. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 83, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 83% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning GrainCorp's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 75, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 75% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 52% of alternatives (only 48% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 55% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation based on GrainCorp's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 100 |
|
84 |
|
87 |
|
83 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 95 |
|
66 |
|
56 |
|
45 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 67 |
|
48 |
|
67 |
|
48 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 48 |
|
84 |
|
77 |
|
75 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 97 |
|
79 |
|
77 |
|
67 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 91 (better than 91% compared with alternatives) for 2024, GrainCorp shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for GrainCorp. Sales Growth has a rank of 89 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 89% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 1% of competitors with a rank of 93, and Stock Returns with the rank of 81 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 1 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 99% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 91, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, GrainCorp is a good growth stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 94 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
89 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 41 |
|
60 |
|
8 |
|
1 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
23 |
|
76 |
|
93 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 90 |
|
89 |
|
43 |
|
81 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 97 |
|
37 |
|
9 |
|
91 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 88 (better than 88% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company GrainCorp has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of GrainCorp is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for GrainCorp. Refinancing is at 99, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 99% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 86, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 86% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 40, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 60% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 88 (better than 88% compared with alternatives), GrainCorp has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and GrainCorp could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with GrainCorp and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 38 |
|
42 |
|
40 |
|
40 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 100 |
|
89 |
|
99 |
|
99 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 49 |
|
70 |
|
84 |
|
86 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 61 |
|
72 |
|
86 |
|
88 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
29 |
|
56 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
67 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
30 |
|
52 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
76 |
|
55 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
44 |
|
53 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for GrainCorp from November 14, 2024.
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