Fact based stock research
GrainCorp (ASX:GNC)

AU000000GNC9

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

GrainCorp stock research in summary

graincorp.com.au

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with investment alternatives), GrainCorp (Food Distributors, Australia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of GrainCorp are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 87 (better than 87% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 62, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 82, is a strong buy recommendation based on GrainCorp's financial characteristics. As the company GrainCorp's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 87) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 62), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 87% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	87
Growth Rank	49
Safety Rank	62
Combined Rank	82

Country	Australia
Industry	Food Distributors
Index	ASX 200, ASX 300
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: GrainCorp

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	97	79	77	87
GROWTH
GROWTH	97	37	9	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	61	72	86	62
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	44	53	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	61	63	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better GrainCorp is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	97	79	77	87
GROWTH
GROWTH	97	37	9	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	61	72	86	62
COMBINED
COMBINED	100	72	68	82

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of GrainCorp the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, GrainCorp shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for GrainCorp. Price-to-Sales is 87 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 87% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for GrainCorp's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 54% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 54. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of GrainCorp are expected to be higher than for 92% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 92). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 87, is a buy recommendation based on GrainCorp's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in GrainCorp based on its detailed value metrics. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	100	84	87	87
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	95	66	56	54
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	67	48	67	54
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	48	84	77	92
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	97	79	77	87

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of GrainCorp; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), GrainCorp shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for GrainCorp. Profit Growth has a rank of 92, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 92% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 51 (above 51% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 99% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 36. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for GrainCorp. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	94	1	1	1
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	41	60	8	92
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	23	76	36
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	90	89	43	51
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	97	37	9	49

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of GrainCorp.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), the company GrainCorp has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of GrainCorp is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for GrainCorp.Leverage is at 50, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 50% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 97, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 97% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 22, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), GrainCorp has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for GrainCorp more challenging. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	38	42	40	50
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	100	89	99	97
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	49	70	84	22
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	61	72	86	62

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of GrainCorp and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	29	56	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	67	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	30	52	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	76	55	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	44	53	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for GrainCorp.
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