Fact based stock research
Heartland Express (NasdaqGS:HTLD)

US4223471040

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

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Heartland Express stock research in summary

heartlandexpress.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with investment alternatives), Heartland Express (Trucking, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Heartland Express are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 38 (worse than 62% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 16) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 54), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Heartland Express's financial characteristics. As the company Heartland Express's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 38) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 16), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 54) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	38
Growth Rank	16
Safety Rank	54
Combined Rank	14

Country	USA
Industry	Trucking
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	Large

26-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Heartland Express

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	46	47	41	38
GROWTH
GROWTH	3	4	5	16
SAFETY
SAFETY	68	74	63	54
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	23	18	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	10	12	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 26-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Heartland Express is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	46	47	41	38
GROWTH
GROWTH	3	4	5	16
SAFETY
SAFETY	68	74	63	54
COMBINED
COMBINED	34	83	17	14

Last update of combined financial performance: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Heartland Express the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with alternatives), Heartland Express shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Heartland Express. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 84, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 84% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 47 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 53% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Heartland Express's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 84 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 57% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 38, is a hold recommendation based on Heartland Express's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Heartland Express, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	46	25	49	47
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	54	47	8	1
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	52	67	71	84
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	33	48	46	43
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	46	47	41	38

Last update of Value Rank: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Heartland Express; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), Heartland Express shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Heartland Express. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 100, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 1% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 17 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 83% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 1 and Stock Returns with a rank of 18 are also low (below 82% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Heartland Express is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	8	14	8	17
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	24	17	6	1
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	28	83	100
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	15	19	13	18
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	3	4	5	16

Last update of Growth Rank: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Heartland Express.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with alternatives), the company Heartland Express has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Heartland Express is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Heartland Express.Leverage is at 79, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 79% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 60, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 60% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 14, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 86% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with alternatives), Heartland Express has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Heartland Express more challenging. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	92	100	66	79
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	21	66	58	60
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	79	46	59	14
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	68	74	63	54

Last update of Safety Rank: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Heartland Express and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	23	23	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	17	29	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	67	1	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	54	77	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	23	18	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Heartland Express.
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