September 26, 2024
Top 10 Stock ITC Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: ITC – Top 10 Stock in Recycling Leaders
ITC is listed as a top 10 stock on September 26, 2024 in the market index Recycling because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 36 (36% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for ITC on September 26, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | India |
| Industry | Tobacco |
| Index | BSE Sensex, Low Emissions, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Independent Boards Growth Markets, Low Waste, Recycling, CNX Nifty 50 |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View ITC Hold
| 360 METRICS | September 26, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 23 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 49 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 92 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 31 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 36 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 36 (better than 36% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock ITC are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for ITC. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 92, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 92% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 23, which means that the share price of ITC is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 49, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 31, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 69% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 36, ITC is worse than 64% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 31. The negative market view on ITC may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for ITC only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock ITC is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and the other half above average for ITC. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 77 (better than 77% of alternative investments). Currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. There are also many institutional investors invested in the stock, represented by a Professional Investors rank of 54 which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 54% of alternative investment opportunities. But Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 31, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse in recommending investing in the company. In other words, they are getting more critical of investments in ITC. Furthermore, Market Pulse has a rank of 7, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 93% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 31 (less encouraging than 69% compared with investment alternatives), ITC has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. Three below-market sentiment indicators are a sign of caution, even if the stock has significantly appreciated. If analysts change their opinions, the stock may become too expensive. If the price is on the way down, the trend may continue. This may be a stock with a good reputation and history, but it may have reached its breaking point by now. Investors should look at the Value Ranks as well. If they indicate trouble, it may be around the corner. ...read more
Value Strategy: ITC Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with alternatives), ITC shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for ITC. Price-to-Sales is 7 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 93% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning ITC's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 19, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of ITC. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 21 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 53% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on ITC's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for ITC? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as ITC? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. ITC may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: ITC Growth Momentum low
| GROWTH METRICS | September 26, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 76 |
|
||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 40 |
|
||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 41 |
|
||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 57 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 49 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), ITC shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for ITC. Sales Growth has a rank of 76 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 76% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 57. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 41, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 59% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 40, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 57% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. ...read more
Safety Strategy: ITC Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | September 26, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 98 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 37 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 100 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 92 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company ITC has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of ITC is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for ITC. Leverage is at a rank of 98, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 98% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 100, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 100% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 37, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 63% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives), ITC has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for ITC. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: ITC Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 26, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 23 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 49 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 66 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 66 (better than 66% compared with investment alternatives), ITC (Tobacco, India) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of ITC are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 92), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 66, is a buy recommendation based on ITC's financial characteristics. As the company ITC's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 23) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 92) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.