Fact based stock research
Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914)
JP3726800000
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Japan Tobacco stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Japan Tobacco (Tobacco, Japan) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Japan Tobacco are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 49, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 63). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation based on Japan Tobacco's financial characteristics. As the company Japan Tobacco shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (51% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 63% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 63). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Japan Tobacco, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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Country | Japan |
Industry | Tobacco |
Index | TOPIX 100, Human Rights, Low Waste, Recycling, Nikkei 225 |
Size class | XX-Large |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Japan Tobacco
RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VALUE | ||||||||
VALUE | 93 |
|
71 |
|
44 |
|
49 |
|
GROWTH | ||||||||
GROWTH | 67 |
|
77 |
|
37 |
|
63 |
|
SAFETY | ||||||||
SAFETY | 57 |
|
38 |
|
45 |
|
49 |
|
SENTIMENT | ||||||||
SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
47 |
|
56 |
|
new | |
360° VIEW | ||||||||
360° VIEW | n/a |
|
73 |
|
42 |
|
new |
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Japan Tobacco (Tobacco, Japan) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Japan Tobacco are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 49, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 63). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation based on Japan Tobacco's financial characteristics. As the company Japan Tobacco shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (51% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 63% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 63). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Japan Tobacco, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VALUE | ||||||||
VALUE | 93 |
|
71 |
|
44 |
|
49 |
|
GROWTH | ||||||||
GROWTH | 67 |
|
77 |
|
37 |
|
63 |
|
SAFETY | ||||||||
SAFETY | 57 |
|
38 |
|
45 |
|
49 |
|
COMBINED | ||||||||
COMBINED | 86 |
|
86 |
|
34 |
|
55 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Japan Tobacco shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Japan Tobacco. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 57 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 57% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Japan Tobacco's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 25, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 25% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 93% of alternatives (only 7% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 8% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Japan Tobacco's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 58 |
|
19 |
|
3 |
|
7 |
|
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 96 |
|
87 |
|
62 |
|
57 |
|
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 86 |
|
38 |
|
22 |
|
25 |
|
DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
DIVIDEND YIELD | 96 |
|
100 |
|
94 |
|
92 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 93 |
|
71 |
|
44 |
|
49 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), Japan Tobacco shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Japan Tobacco. Sales Growth has a rank of 73 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 73% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 33% of competitors with a rank of 61, and Stock Returns with the rank of 67 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 33 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 67% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, Japan Tobacco is a good growth stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
REVENUE GROWTH | 28 |
|
26 |
|
31 |
|
73 |
|
PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
PROFIT GROWTH | 23 |
|
52 |
|
31 |
|
33 |
|
CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
67 |
|
39 |
|
61 |
|
STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
STOCK RETURNS | 70 |
|
95 |
|
85 |
|
67 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 67 |
|
77 |
|
37 |
|
63 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), the company Japan Tobacco has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Japan Tobacco is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Japan Tobacco. Leverage is at a rank of 56, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 56% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 55, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 33, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 67% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Japan Tobacco has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Japan Tobacco. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Japan Tobacco and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LEVERAGE | ||||||||
LEVERAGE | 40 |
|
52 |
|
58 |
|
56 |
|
REFINANCING | ||||||||
REFINANCING | 66 |
|
39 |
|
33 |
|
33 |
|
LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
LIQUIDITY | 61 |
|
44 |
|
55 |
|
55 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 57 |
|
38 |
|
45 |
|
49 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
37 |
|
25 |
|
new | |
OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
58 |
|
59 |
|
new | |
PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
83 |
|
100 |
|
new | |
MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
15 |
|
44 |
|
new | |
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
47 |
|
56 |
|
new |
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Japan Tobacco from December 19, 2024.
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