March 14, 2024
Top 10 Stock Kellogg Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Kellogg – Top 10 Stock in S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index
Kellogg is listed as a top 10 stock on March 14, 2024 in the market index S&P US Consumer because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit above-average performance, the professional market sentiment is positive and it may be a solid investment proposition, especially if a growth recovery is to be expected soon. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 15 (15% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Kellogg on March 14, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Packaged Foods & Meats |
| Index | Dividends USA, Energy Efficient, S&P US Consumer, S&P US Food & Beverage, S&P 500 |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Kellogg Sell
| 360 METRICS | March 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 70 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 19 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 4 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 52 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 15 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 15 (better than 15% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Kellogg are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for Kellogg. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 70, which means that the share price of Kellogg is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 70% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 52, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 52% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 19, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 4, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 96 comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 15, Kellogg is worse than 85% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Kellogg shares are on the riskier side for investors. Half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit above-average performance, but the other half are below market levels. The company enjoys a good value (Value Rank of 70) and positive market sentiment in the professional investor community (Sentiment Rank of 52), but growth expectations are below-average (Growth Rank of 19) and the financing structure is on the risky side(Safety Rank of 4). This combination is rather dangerous, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. The current low growth level may be temporary, because professionals are actually optimistic (positive sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. Companies with less growth typically have a lower price than fast-growing competitors. Even though professional investor sentiment is strong, we recommend further evaluating whether the future of Kellogg is as challenging as the stock's low price suggests. Since the professional community is optimistic, the stock might just be going through a more challenging phase now, indicating that timing might be good now. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Kellogg positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Kellogg is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Kellogg. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 30 (worse than 70% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 37, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. Other sentiment indicators are positive: The Professional Investors rank is 63, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 63% of alternative investment opportunities. So, pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 67, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 67% of competitors). While stock research analysts are getting ever more critical, many professional investors are committed to Kellogg and the professional news channels are on the positive side. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 52 (more positive than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Kellogg has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical, while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Kellogg Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), Kellogg shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Kellogg. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 51, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Kellogg's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 67% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 94 (dividends are expected to be higher than 94% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 75% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Kellogg to 25. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 70, is a buy recommendation based on Kellogg's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Kellogg Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), Kellogg shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Kellogg. Sales Growth has a rank of 39, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 61% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 28, and Capital Growth with 19. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 45, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 55% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Kellogg Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | March 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 13 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 4 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 46 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 4 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 4 (better than 4% compared with alternatives), the company Kellogg has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Kellogg is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Kellogg. Liquidity is at 46, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 54% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 13, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 87% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 4 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 96% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with alternatives), Kellogg has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Kellogg Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | March 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 70 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 19 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 46 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 4 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Kellogg (Packaged Foods & Meats, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Kellogg are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 70 (better than 70% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 19), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 4), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Kellogg's financial characteristics. As the company Kellogg's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 70) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 19) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 4), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 70% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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