Fact based stock research
KGHM Polska (WSE:KGH)
PLKGHM000017
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
KGHM Polska stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with investment alternatives), KGHM Polska (Copper, Poland) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of KGHM Polska are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 18 (worse than 82% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 86) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 63, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation based on KGHM Polska's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company KGHM Polska exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 18), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 86). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 63) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Poland |
| Industry | Copper |
| Index | Low Emissions, Copper, Energy Efficient, Iron, Lithium, Rare Earth, Uranium, WIG 20 |
| Size class | X-Large |
This stock has achievements: Insight 2022-04-07, Top 10 Stock.
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: KGHM Polska
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 86 |
|
29 |
|
12 |
|
18 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 68 |
|
43 |
|
7 |
|
86 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 5 |
|
37 |
|
62 |
|
63 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
78 |
|
14 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
35 |
|
4 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with investment alternatives), KGHM Polska (Copper, Poland) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of KGHM Polska are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 18 (worse than 82% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 86) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 63, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation based on KGHM Polska's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company KGHM Polska exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 18), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 86). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 63) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 86 |
|
29 |
|
12 |
|
18 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 68 |
|
43 |
|
7 |
|
86 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 5 |
|
37 |
|
62 |
|
63 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 54 |
|
23 |
|
6 |
|
59 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with alternatives), KGHM Polska shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for KGHM Polska. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 53 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 53% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning KGHM Polska's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 53, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 53% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 76% of alternatives (only 24% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 76% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 18, is a sell recommendation based on KGHM Polska's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 86 |
|
34 |
|
34 |
|
24 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 89 |
|
38 |
|
11 |
|
53 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 76 |
|
67 |
|
67 |
|
53 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 50 |
|
38 |
|
20 |
|
24 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 86 |
|
29 |
|
12 |
|
18 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives) for 2024, KGHM Polska shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for KGHM Polska. Sales Growth has a rank of 62 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 62% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 96, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 88, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 43, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 57% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 86, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 54 |
|
31 |
|
10 |
|
62 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 74 |
|
79 |
|
13 |
|
96 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
52 |
|
44 |
|
43 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 76 |
|
11 |
|
47 |
|
88 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 68 |
|
43 |
|
7 |
|
86 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), the company KGHM Polska has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of KGHM Polska is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for KGHM Polska. Leverage is at a rank of 69, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 69% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 90, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 14, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), KGHM Polska has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for KGHM Polska. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with KGHM Polska and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 16 |
|
62 |
|
68 |
|
69 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 8 |
|
11 |
|
21 |
|
14 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 50 |
|
72 |
|
98 |
|
90 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 5 |
|
37 |
|
62 |
|
63 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
17 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
31 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
77 |
|
12 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
96 |
|
100 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
78 |
|
14 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for KGHM Polska from November 14, 2024.
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