Fact based stock research
KGHM Polska (WSE:KGH)

PLKGHM000017

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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KGHM Polska stock research in summary

kghm.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with investment alternatives), KGHM Polska (Copper, Poland) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of KGHM Polska are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 14 (worse than 86% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 14) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 72), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation based on KGHM Polska's financial characteristics. As the company KGHM Polska's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 14) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 14), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 72) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	n/a
Growth Rank	n/a
Safety Rank	n/a
Combined Rank	n/a

Country	Poland
Industry	Copper
Index	Low Emissions, Copper, Energy Efficient, Iron, Lithium, Rare Earth, Uranium, WIG 20
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Insight 2022-04-07, Top 10 Stock.

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Further information

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Research History: KGHM Polska

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	86	29	12	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	68	43	7	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	5	37	62	n/a
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	78	14	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	35	4	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: . Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: . Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better KGHM Polska is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	86	29	12	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	68	43	7	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	5	37	62	n/a
COMBINED
COMBINED	54	23	6	n/a

Last update of combined financial performance: . Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of KGHM Polska the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with alternatives), KGHM Polska shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for KGHM Polska. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 69, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 69% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 31 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 69% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning KGHM Polska's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 69 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 75% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on KGHM Polska's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for KGHM Polska, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	86	34	34	n/a
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	89	38	11	n/a
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	76	67	67	n/a
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	50	38	20	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	86	29	12	n/a

Last update of Value Rank: . Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of KGHM Polska; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 14 (better than 14% compared with alternatives), KGHM Polska shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for KGHM Polska. Sales Growth has a rank of 17, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 83% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 13, and Capital Growth with 43. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 41, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 59% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	54	31	10	n/a
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	74	79	13	n/a
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	52	44	n/a
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	76	11	47	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	68	43	7	n/a

Last update of Growth Rank: . Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of KGHM Polska.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with alternatives), the company KGHM Polska has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of KGHM Polska is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for KGHM Polska. Leverage is at a rank of 69, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 69% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 98, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 98% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 26, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 74% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with alternatives), KGHM Polska has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for KGHM Polska. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with KGHM Polska and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	16	62	68	n/a
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	8	11	21	n/a
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	50	72	98	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	5	37	62	n/a

Last update of Safety Rank: . Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of KGHM Polska and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	17	1	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	31	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	77	12	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	96	100	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	78	14	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: . Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for KGHM Polska.
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