Fact based stock research
Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG)

CA5503711080

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Lundin Gold stock research in summary

lundingold.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with investment alternatives), Lundin Gold (Gold Production, Canada) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Lundin Gold are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 46, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 79). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation based on Lundin Gold's financial characteristics. As the company Lundin Gold shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (60% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 79% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 79). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 46 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Lundin Gold, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	40
Growth Rank	79
Safety Rank	46
Combined Rank	67

Country	Canada
Industry	Gold Production
Index	Gold, Silver, TSX Composite
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Lundin Gold

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	69	39	40
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	49	89	79
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	6	8	46
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	63	74	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	41	52	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Lundin Gold is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	69	39	40
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	49	89	79
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	6	8	46
COMBINED
COMBINED	n/a	23	31	67

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Lundin Gold the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with alternatives), Lundin Gold shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Lundin Gold. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 56 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 56% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Lundin Gold's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 5, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 5% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 81% of alternatives (only 19% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 13% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on Lundin Gold's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	n/a	43	22	19
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	n/a	59	59	56
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	n/a	50	5	5
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	n/a	89	82	87
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	n/a	69	39	40

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Lundin Gold; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Lundin Gold shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Lundin Gold. Sales Growth has a value of 53, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 53% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 63 and for Capital Growth with 67. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 99, which means they have been higher than 99% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 79, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Lundin Gold exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	n/a	48	23	53
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	57	80	63
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	36	88	67
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	n/a	53	87	99
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	n/a	49	89	79

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Lundin Gold.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 46 (better than 46% compared with alternatives), the company Lundin Gold has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Lundin Gold is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Lundin Gold and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 51 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 51% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 36, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 64% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 45, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with alternatives), Lundin Gold has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Lundin Gold are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Lundin Gold and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	n/a	9	14	51
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	n/a	32	45	36
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	n/a	34	15	45
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	n/a	6	8	46

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Lundin Gold and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	58	51	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	92	75	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	24	76	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	46	61	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	63	74	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Lundin Gold.
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