May 16, 2024
Top 10 Stock National Fuel Gas Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: National Fuel Gas – Top 10 Stock in Low Emission Leaders
National Fuel Gas is listed as a top 10 stock on May 16, 2024 in the market index Low Emissions because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, it is a solid investment from a financial fact perspective where only investor sentiment is a reason for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 80 (top 80% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for National Fuel Gas on May 16, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Gas Utilities |
| Index | Low Emissions, Oil & Gas, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View National Fuel Gas Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | May 16, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 65 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 65 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 89 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 20 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 80 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 80 (better than 80% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock National Fuel Gas are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for National Fuel Gas. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 65, which means that the share price of National Fuel Gas is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 65% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 65, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. The company is also safely financed with a Safety Rank of 89. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of only 20. Professional investors are more confident in 80% other stocks. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 80, National Fuel Gas is better positioned than 80% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Value Rank of 65), above-average growth (Growth Rank of 65), and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 89), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited, and disappointments are less likely, unless information not publicly available. Only the professional market sentiment is on the riskier side (Sentiment Rank of 20), but that could also mean an overreaction to negative news in the past. Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. If they have been enjoying above average growth and are still a good value, this may not continue. We recommend evaluating whether the future of National Fuel Gas is as challenging as the low price of the stock despite good growth and safe financing practices suggest. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you may want to reflect these negative opinions in light of what you find reasonable to expect for the future. If you believe this pessimistic view is transitory, you have a solid investment case based on current financial factors. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for National Fuel Gas negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock National Fuel Gas is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and the other half above average for National Fuel Gas. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 44 (worse than 56% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 14, which means that stock research experts are getting more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 44, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 56% of competitors). On the upside, the Professional Investors rank is 57, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 57% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. This could be due to a large company size, which could contribute to the higher share of professional investors in the company. If this is not the case, the low sentiment ranks are more challenging to explain. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 20 (less encouraging than 80% compared with investment alternatives), National Fuel Gas has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Should the company be on the smaller side, the presence of professional investors could be reassuring. That would make National Fuel Gas stock something like a hidden gem. Investors should make sure with further research that this is true, because all other sentiment indicators are negative which is a sign for caution. ...read more
Value Strategy: National Fuel Gas Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), National Fuel Gas shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for National Fuel Gas. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 91 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 91% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning National Fuel Gas's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 58, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 58% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 56% of alternatives (only 44% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 72% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 65, is a buy recommendation based on National Fuel Gas's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more
Growth Strategy: National Fuel Gas Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), National Fuel Gas shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for National Fuel Gas. Sales Growth has a rank of 96 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 96% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 72. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 32, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 68% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 27, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 65, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 72% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. ...read more
Safety Strategy: National Fuel Gas Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | May 16, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 86 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 33 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 90 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 89 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 89 (better than 89% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company National Fuel Gas has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of National Fuel Gas is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for National Fuel Gas. Leverage is at a rank of 86, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 90, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 33, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 67% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 89 (better than 89% compared with alternatives), National Fuel Gas has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for National Fuel Gas. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: National Fuel Gas Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | May 16, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 65 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 65 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 90 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with investment alternatives), National Fuel Gas (Gas Utilities, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of National Fuel Gas are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 65 (better than 65% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 65), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 89), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 100, is a strong buy recommendation based on National Fuel Gas's financial characteristics. As the company National Fuel Gas's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 65), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 65), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 89), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of National Fuel Gas. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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