December 26, 2024
Top 10 Stock National Fuel Gas Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: National Fuel Gas – Top 10 Stock in Low Emission Leaders
National Fuel Gas is listed as a top 10 stock on December 26, 2024 in the market index Low Emissions because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, it is a solid investment from a financial fact perspective where only investor sentiment is a reason for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 83 (top 83% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for National Fuel Gas on December 26, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Gas Utilities |
| Index | Low Emissions, Oil & Gas, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View National Fuel Gas Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | December 26, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 67 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 83 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 81 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 15 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 83 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock National Fuel Gas are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for National Fuel Gas. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 67, which means that the share price of National Fuel Gas is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 67% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 83, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. The company is also safely financed with a Safety Rank of 81. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of only 15. Professional investors are more confident in 85% other stocks. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 83, National Fuel Gas is better positioned than 83% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Value Rank of 67), above-average growth (Growth Rank of 83), and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 81), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited, and disappointments are less likely, unless information not publicly available. Only the professional market sentiment is on the riskier side (Sentiment Rank of 15), but that could also mean an overreaction to negative news in the past. Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. If they have been enjoying above average growth and are still a good value, this may not continue. We recommend evaluating whether the future of National Fuel Gas is as challenging as the low price of the stock despite good growth and safe financing practices suggest. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you may want to reflect these negative opinions in light of what you find reasonable to expect for the future. If you believe this pessimistic view is transitory, you have a solid investment case based on current financial factors. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for National Fuel Gas negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 15 (better than 15% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock National Fuel Gas is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for National Fuel Gas. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 28 (worse than 72% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts have found something to make them more positive about investing in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in National Fuel Gas. But the Professional Investors rank is low at 7, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 93% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Market Pulse is also low at a rank of 36, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 64% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 15 (less encouraging than 85% compared with investment alternatives), National Fuel Gas has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. These are quite a few negative sentiment signals. One may want to trust the analysts that are changing their opinions. They may be early indications of better times, especially if the company is a smaller one. But If they are an extra large company, they should have more professional stockholders than are currently present. ...read more
Value Strategy: National Fuel Gas Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), National Fuel Gas shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for National Fuel Gas. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 60, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 60% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding National Fuel Gas's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 95% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 54. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 33% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than National Fuel Gas (a Dividend Yield Rank of 33). 67% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation based on National Fuel Gas's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. ...read more
Growth Strategy: National Fuel Gas Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | December 26, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 94 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 82 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 39 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 61 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 83 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives) for 2024, National Fuel Gas shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for National Fuel Gas. Sales Growth has a rank of 94 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 94% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 82, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 61, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 39, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 61% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 83, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. ...read more
Safety Strategy: National Fuel Gas Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | December 26, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 88 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 9 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 90 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 81 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company National Fuel Gas has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of National Fuel Gas is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for National Fuel Gas. Leverage is at a rank of 88, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 88% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 90, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 9, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 91% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives), National Fuel Gas has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for National Fuel Gas. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: National Fuel Gas Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 26, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 67 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 83 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 90 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with investment alternatives), National Fuel Gas (Gas Utilities, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of National Fuel Gas are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 83), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 81), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 100, is a strong buy recommendation based on National Fuel Gas's financial characteristics. As the company National Fuel Gas's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 67), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 83), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 81), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of National Fuel Gas. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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