September 19, 2024
Top 10 Stock Rayonier Buy Recommendation

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For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).

360° View: Obermatt 360° View Rayonier Buy

360 METRICS	September 19, 2024
VALUE
VALUE	25
GROWTH
GROWTH	45
SAFETY
SAFETY	73
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	51
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	51

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Rayonier are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half below and half above average for Rayonier. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 51% of alternative investment opportunities. It also rates well regarding its financing structure, with the consolidated Safety Rank at 73 or better than 73% of its peers when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the stock is expensive and expects low growth. The consolidated Value Rank is only 25, meaning that the share price of Rayonier is on the high side, compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth,and stock returns, with its Growth Rank at 45. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 51, Rayonier is better positioned than 51% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, namely the positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 51) and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 73), the case for investing in this stock needs further thought. The Value and the Safety Ranks are below average. The Safety Rank is the least critical of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average sentiment? This may be a case where growth is in the future, not yet reflected in current performance. Companies that might fall into this category are those with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In early phases, they are expensive relative to their size and have a lot of capital on their books, as is the case here. Investors expect a better future and are willing to pay a higher price than is warranted by the current company size. These higher prices drive stock price value down in the short term. In this case, future growth may be the strongest driver of the investment case, reflected by institutional investors' opinions. With a weak Value Rank, the question is how much to sacrifice value at the cost of positive sentiment. Sometimes market sentiment is just hype, but sometimes it is right. You pay more than market-average for this stock, but it may be worth it, if the future of Rayonieṛ is bright. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more

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Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Rayonier positive

SENTIMENT METRICS	September 19, 2024
ANALYST OPINION
ANALYST OPINION	15
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	50
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	80
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	57
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	51

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Rayonier is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Rayonier. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 15 (worse than 85% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which indicates a shift in stock research experts opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic about stock investments in Rayonier. Even better, the Professional Investors rank is 80, meaning that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 80% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Furthermore, Market Pulse has a rank of 57, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are upbeat when discussing this company (more positive news than for 57% of competitors). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 51 (more positive than 51% compared with investment alternatives), Rayonier has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. While analysts are still critical of the company, some are changing their minds. In addition, the professional news channels are optimistic, and many institutional investors have already bought stock in the company. These are encouraging signals, despite the still lower level of analyst recommendations. They may be due to a problematic past, and about to change. The positive sentiment signals are stronger than the negative. ...read more

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Value Strategy: Rayonier Stock Price Value below-average critical

VALUE METRICS	September 19, 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	51
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	3
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	23
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	40
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	25

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), Rayonier shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Rayonier. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 51, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Rayonier's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 40, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 60% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 77% of alternatives (only 23% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 97% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Rayonier's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Rayonier could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Rayonier looks like an expensive investment today. ...read more

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Growth Strategy: Rayonier Growth Momentum low

GROWTH METRICS	September 19, 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	50
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	37
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	63
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	39
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	45

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), Rayonier shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Rayonier. Sales Growth has a rank of 50 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 50% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 37% of competitors with a rank of 63. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 37, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 63% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 39. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. ...read more

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Safety Strategy: Rayonier Debt Financing Safety above-average

SAFETY METRICS	September 19, 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	62
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	66
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	63
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	73

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), the company Rayonier has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Rayonier is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Rayonier. Leverage is at 62, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 62% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 66, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 66% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 63, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), Rayonier has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more

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Combined financial peformance: Rayonier Below-Average Financial Performance

COMBINED PERFORMANCE	September 19, 2024
VALUE
VALUE	25
GROWTH
GROWTH	45
SAFETY
SAFETY	63
COMBINED
COMBINED	49

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with investment alternatives), Rayonier (REITs: Specialized, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Rayonier are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 45) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 73), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Rayonier's financial characteristics. As the company Rayonier's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 25) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 45), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 73) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more

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