May 23, 2024
Top 10 Stock SAP Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: SAP – Top 10 Stock in Germany TECDAX
SAP is listed as a top 10 stock on May 23, 2024 in the market index TecDAX because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is growing above average, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 34 (34% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for SAP on May 23, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Germany |
| Industry | Application Software |
| Index | CDAX, DAX 40, EURO STOXX 50, Dividends Europe, Employee Focus EU, Human Rights, Renewables Users, TecDAX |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View SAP Hold
| 360 METRICS | May 23, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 37 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 87 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 45 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 29 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 34 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 34 (better than 34% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock SAP are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for SAP. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 87, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. It ranks higher than 87% of competitors in the same industry. The other indicators are below average, namely the Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks.The Value Rank at 37 means that the share price of SAP is on the high side compared with its peers regarding revenues, profits, and invested capital. The stock price is higher than for 63% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 45, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 55% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 29, indicating professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 71% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 34, SAP is worse than 66% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits excellent performance, namely the above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87), it is a riskier stock investment proposition. Aside from the critical professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 29), the company is rather risky when it comes to financing (Safety Rank of 45). The negative market view on SAP may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to join the party, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. While it is typical for growth companies to have low value, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that are expected to have high growth, the crucial question is: how much more do you pay for the stock of SAP compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for SAP only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock SAP is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and half above average for SAP. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 39 (worse than 61% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 24, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. In addition, the Professional Investors rank is 40, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 60% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. The only positive sentiment indicator for SAP is Market Pulse, with a rank of 64, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 64% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 29 (less encouraging than 71% compared with investment alternatives), SAP has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: SAP Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), SAP shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for SAP. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 62% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 17 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 83% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning SAP's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 22 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 78% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 43 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 57% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on SAP's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick SAP? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose SAP only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: SAP Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, SAP shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for SAP. Sales Growth has a rank of 65 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 65% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 19% of competitors with a rank of 80, and Stock Returns with the rank of 92 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 19 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 81% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 87, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, SAP is a good growth stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: SAP Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | May 23, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 56 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 27 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 54 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 45 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), the company SAP has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of SAP is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for SAP. Leverage is at a rank of 56, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 56% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 54, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 54% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 27, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 73% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with alternatives), SAP has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for SAP. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: SAP Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | May 23, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 37 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 87 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 54 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 64 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 64 (better than 64% compared with investment alternatives), SAP (Application Software, Germany) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of SAP are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 45, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 64, is a buy recommendation based on SAP's financial characteristics. As the company SAP shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (63% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 87% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 87). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 45 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for SAP, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.