July 18, 2024
Top 10 Stock Sappi Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Sappi – Top 10 Stock in Independent Boards in Growth Markets
Sappi is listed as a top 10 stock on July 18, 2024 in the market index Independent Boards Growth Markets because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While half the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, investor sentiment is negative and growth performance is below market average, both a sign for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 39 (39% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Sappi on July 18, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | South Africa |
| Industry | Paper Products |
| Index | Energy Efficient, Good Governace Growth Markets, Human Rights, Independent Boards Growth Markets, Timber Industry, JSE All Shares |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Sappi Hold
| 360 METRICS | July 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 96 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 23 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 59 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 18 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Sappi are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for Sappi. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 96, which means that the share price of Sappi is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 96% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 59. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 18. Professional investors are more confident in 82% other stocks. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 23, which means that the company is below average in terms of growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. 77 of its competitors have better growth. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 39, Sappi is worse than 61% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. The picture is mixed here. The stock seems to be a good value (Value Rank of 96), and the financing structure is on the safer side (Safety Rank of 59). However, sentiment in the professional investor community is below-average (Sentiment Rank of 18), as is the growth momentum for the company (Growth Rank of 23). Since the company is good value and the share price low, it should attract investors, yet professionals are skeptical. Even though the financing structure is not as important as Value, Growth, and Sentiment, investors should still be careful with this decision and conduct further research if they are serious about investing in this company. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Sappi negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Sappi is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Sappi. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 53 (better than 53% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive and has a rank of 50 which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic about investments in Sappi. But Market Pulse has a low rank of 19, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 81% of competitors). This is an essential sign of caution, as it could be the forebearer of bad news. Professional Investors are also somewhat absent with a rank of 40, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 60% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. This is expected if the company is of a smaller size (medium or smaller). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 18 (less encouraging than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Sappi has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. While the general news feeds in the professional market are negative, the analyst recommendations are optimistic about the company, and even increase their ratings despite the negative news. This is an ambiguous situation with positive and negative signals from the professional side. Investors should be on the lookout for negative news but not worry too much about it as long as the overall news is still positive. ...read more
Value Strategy: Sappi Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 96 (better than 96% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Sappi shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Sappi. Price-to-Sales is 89 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 89% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Sappi's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 91% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 95. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Sappi are expected to be higher than for 82% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 82). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 96, is a buy recommendation based on Sappi's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Sappi based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Sappi Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), Sappi shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Sappi. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 47, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 53% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 17, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 10. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 90% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 75, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 75% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Sappi, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Sappi Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | July 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 28 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 81 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 52 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 59 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), the company Sappi has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Sappi is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Sappi. Refinancing is at 81, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 81% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 52, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 52% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 28, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 72% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Sappi has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Sappi could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Sappi Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | July 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 96 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 23 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 52 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 79 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Sappi (Paper Products, South Africa) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Sappi are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 96 (better than 96% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 59, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 79, is a strong buy recommendation based on Sappi's financial characteristics. As the company Sappi's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 96) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 59), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 96% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. ...read more
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