Fact based stock research
Shiseido (TSE:4911)
JP3351600006
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Shiseido stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Shiseido (Personal Products, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Shiseido are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 7), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 20), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Shiseido's financial characteristics. As the company Shiseido's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 41), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 7), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 20), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Japan |
| Industry | Personal Products |
| Index | TOPIX 100, Nikkei 225 |
| Size class | X-Large |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Shiseido
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 44 |
|
17 |
|
30 |
|
41 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 47 |
|
63 |
|
19 |
|
7 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 33 |
|
17 |
|
17 |
|
20 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
18 |
|
10 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
5 |
|
4 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Shiseido (Personal Products, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Shiseido are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 7), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 20), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Shiseido's financial characteristics. As the company Shiseido's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 41), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 7), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 20), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 44 |
|
17 |
|
30 |
|
41 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 47 |
|
63 |
|
19 |
|
7 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 33 |
|
17 |
|
17 |
|
20 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 40 |
|
15 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Shiseido shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Shiseido. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 61, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 61% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Shiseido's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 50, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 50% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 65% of alternatives (only 35% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 89% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Shiseido's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 63 |
|
47 |
|
52 |
|
61 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 39 |
|
9 |
|
19 |
|
11 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 24 |
|
13 |
|
24 |
|
35 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 63 |
|
22 |
|
41 |
|
50 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 44 |
|
17 |
|
30 |
|
41 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), Shiseido shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Shiseido. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 53, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 6% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 15 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 85% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 6 and Stock Returns with a rank of 21 are also low (below 79% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Shiseido is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 35 |
|
23 |
|
48 |
|
15 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 50 |
|
90 |
|
12 |
|
6 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
47 |
|
68 |
|
53 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 65 |
|
53 |
|
11 |
|
21 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 47 |
|
63 |
|
19 |
|
7 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), the company Shiseido has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Shiseido is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Shiseido. Liquidity is at 37, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 32, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 68% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 15 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with alternatives), Shiseido has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Shiseido because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 31 |
|
20 |
|
28 |
|
32 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 49 |
|
17 |
|
15 |
|
15 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 48 |
|
19 |
|
41 |
|
37 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 33 |
|
17 |
|
17 |
|
20 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
62 |
|
38 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
9 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
23 |
|
18 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
12 |
|
17 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
18 |
|
10 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Shiseido from December 19, 2024.
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