October 17, 2024
Top 10 Stock Shopify Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Shopify – Top 10 Stock in Toronto Stock Exchange Index TSX Composite
Shopify is listed as a top 10 stock on October 17, 2024 in the market index TSX Composite because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 64 (high 64% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Shopify on October 17, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Internet Services & Infrastructure |
| Index | TSX Composite |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Shopify Buy
| 360 METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 33 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 48 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 85 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 64 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Shopify are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Shopify. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 97, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 97% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 85, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 85% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 33, which means that the share price of Shopify is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 67% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 48, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than those of 52% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 64, Shopify is better positioned than 64% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 97), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 85), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take 100 minus the growth rank, you arrive at a possibly minimum level for the value rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the growth rank is above 60. Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes it reflects reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Shopify very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 85 (better than 85% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Shopify is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all four indicators above average for Shopify. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 50 (better than 50% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive with a rank of 57, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better and recommending investing in the company. They are getting more optimistic about stock investments in Shopify. The Professional Investors rank is 91, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 91% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Finally, Market Pulse has a rank of 68 which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the positive side when discussing this company (more positive news than for 68% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 85 (more positive than 85% compared with investment alternatives), Shopify has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. Since all market sentiment indicators are positive, the professional community highly recommends investment in the company. Does this mean Shopify stocks are a safe investment? Far from it. Even professionals make mistakes. Especially in stock investing, there is a tendency to follow the leaders. Since trees don't grow to the heavens, such positive sentiment may also be interpreted as a danger sign. A lot of optimism can often be a sign of troubles to come, albeit unforeseen by most. ...read more
Value Strategy: Shopify Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with alternatives), Shopify shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Shopify. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 100% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 11 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 89% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Shopify's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 20 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 80% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 17 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 83% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation based on Shopify's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Shopify? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Shopify only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Shopify Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Shopify shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Shopify. Sales Growth has a value of 90, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 90% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 64 and for Capital Growth with 68. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 81, which means they have been higher than 81% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 97, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Shopify exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Shopify Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 64 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 46 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 32 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 48 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), the company Shopify has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Shopify is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Shopify and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 64 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 64% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 46, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 54% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 32, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 68% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with alternatives), Shopify has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Shopify are on the safer side. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Shopify Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 33 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 32 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 52 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Shopify (Internet Services & Infrastructure, Canada) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Shopify are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 33 (worse than 67% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 48, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation based on Shopify's financial characteristics. As the company Shopify shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 33 (67% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 97% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 97). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 48 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Shopify, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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