July 4, 2024
Top 10 Stock Splunk Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Splunk – Top 10 Stock in NASDAQ 100 Index
Splunk is listed as a top 10 stock on July 04, 2024 in the market index NASDAQ 100 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 57 (high 57% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Splunk on July 04, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Application Software |
| Index | Human Rights, NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Splunk Buy
| 360 METRICS | July 4, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 40 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 36 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 59 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 38 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 57 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Splunk are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Splunk. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 59, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 59% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 40, which means that the share price of Splunk is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 36, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 38, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 62% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 57, Splunk is better positioned than 57% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 38. The negative market view on Splunk may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Splunk only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 38 (better than 38% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Splunk is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Splunk. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 5 (worse than 95% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 86, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Splunk. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 68, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 68% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 41, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 59% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 38 (less encouraging than 62% compared with investment alternatives), Splunk has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Splunk. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Splunk Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with alternatives), Splunk shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for Splunk. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 52, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 52% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Splunk's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 59% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 1% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 74% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Splunk to 26. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on Splunk's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Splunk Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 36 (better than 36% compared with alternatives), Splunk shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Splunk. Sales Growth has a rank of 61 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 61% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 84. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 15, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 85% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 10, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 36, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 84% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Splunk Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | July 4, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 10 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 57 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 91 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 59 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), the company Splunk has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Splunk is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Splunk. Refinancing is at 57, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 91, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 10, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 90% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Splunk has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Splunk could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Splunk Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | July 4, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 40 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 36 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 91 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 70 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with investment alternatives), Splunk (Application Software, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Splunk are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 36) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 59), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 70, is a buy recommendation based on Splunk's financial characteristics. As the company Splunk's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 40) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 36), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 59) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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