Fact based stock research
Toagosei (TSE:4045)

JP3556400004

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

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Toagosei stock research in summary

toagosei.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Toagosei (Diversified Chemicals, Japan) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Toagosei are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 75), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Toagosei's financial characteristics. As the company Toagosei's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 75) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	49
Growth Rank	41
Safety Rank	75
Combined Rank	47

Country	Japan
Industry	Diversified Chemicals
Index
Size class	Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Toagosei

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	98	57	47	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	23	21	85	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	100	98	92	75
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	52	92	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	65	94	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Toagosei is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	98	57	47	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	23	21	85	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	100	98	92	75
COMBINED
COMBINED	90	64	82	47

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Toagosei the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Toagosei shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Toagosei. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 67% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 31 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 69% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Toagosei's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 46 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 54% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 46 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 54% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Toagosei's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Toagosei? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Toagosei only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	80	52	43	31
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	82	64	56	46
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	98	84	62	46
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	82	35	47	67
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	98	57	47	49

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Toagosei; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), Toagosei shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Toagosei. Sales Growth has a rank of 71 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 71% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 71. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 39, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 61% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 24, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 71% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	31	35	67	71
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	37	33	44	24
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	47	95	39
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	28	29	67	71
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	23	21	85	41

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Toagosei.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Toagosei has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Toagosei is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Toagosei. Leverage is at a rank of 82, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 82% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 81, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 81% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 47, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 53% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives), Toagosei has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Toagosei. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Toagosei and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	98	84	80	82
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	94	93	73	47
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	100	78	80	81
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	100	98	92	75

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Toagosei and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	n/a	78	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	95	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	82	65	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	11	44	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	52	92	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Toagosei.
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