August 22, 2024
Top 10 Stock UCB Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: UCB – Top 10 Stock in Belgian 20 Index BEL20
UCB is listed as a top 10 stock on August 22, 2024 in the market index BEL20 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 29 (29% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for UCB on August 22, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Belgium |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals |
| Index | BEL20, Human Rights |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View UCB Hold
| 360 METRICS | August 22, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 92 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 20 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 51 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 29 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock UCB are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for UCB. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 92, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 92% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 51, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 51% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 17, which means that the share price of UCB is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 83% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 20, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than those of 80% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 29, UCB is worse than 71% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 92), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 51), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take 100 minus the growth rank, you arrive at a possibly minimum level for the value rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the growth rank is above 60. Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes it reflects reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for UCB positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock UCB is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and above average for UCB. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 71 which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in UCB. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 70, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive in their discussions about this company (more positive news than for 70% of competitors). Only professional investors tend to be absent with a Professional Investors rank of 36, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 64% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. But that could also be due to the size of the company. Professional investors tend to invest in XL and XXL companies. If the company is smaller than that, that fact alone may explain why there are fewer pros present. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 51 (more positive than 51% compared with investment alternatives), UCB has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. Since analysts are getting more optimistic and the professional communication channels are positive, it may be an indication of a company that has the difficult times behind it or the stocks’ value is improving. For medium to smaller companies, the positive sentiment indicators outshine the negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: UCB Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), UCB shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for UCB. Price-to-Sales is 26 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 74% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning UCB's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 37, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of UCB. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 16 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 51% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on UCB's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for UCB? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as UCB? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. UCB may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: UCB Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives) for 2024, UCB shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for UCB. Sales Growth has a rank of 74 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 74% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 41% of competitors with a rank of 81, and Stock Returns with the rank of 92 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 41 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 59% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 92, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, UCB is a good growth stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: UCB Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | August 22, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 51 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 16 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 31 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 20 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), the company UCB has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of UCB is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for UCB and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 51 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 51% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 16, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 31, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 69% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with alternatives), UCB has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of UCB are on the safer side. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: UCB Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | August 22, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 92 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 31 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 33 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with investment alternatives), UCB (Pharmaceuticals, Belgium) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of UCB are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 20, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 92). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation based on UCB's financial characteristics. As the company UCB shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (83% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 92% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 92). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 20 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for UCB, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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