July 25, 2024
Top 10 Stock Umpqua Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Umpqua – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Regional Banks Index
Umpqua is listed as a top 10 stock on July 25, 2024 in the market index D.J. US Banks because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While half the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, investor sentiment is negative and growth performance is below market average, both a sign for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 100 (top 100% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for Umpqua on July 25, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Regional Banks |
| Index | Dividends USA, Employee Health US, NASDAQ, D.J. US Banks, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Umpqua Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | July 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 97 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 32 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 91 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 29 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2023, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Umpqua are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for Umpqua. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 97, which means that the share price of Umpqua is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 97% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 91. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 29. Professional investors are more confident in 71% other stocks. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 32, which means that the company is below average in terms of growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. 68 of its competitors have better growth. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 100, Umpqua is better positioned than 100% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. The picture is mixed here. The stock seems to be a good value (Value Rank of 97), and the financing structure is on the safer side (Safety Rank of 91). However, sentiment in the professional investor community is below-average (Sentiment Rank of 29), as is the growth momentum for the company (Growth Rank of 32). Since the company is good value and the share price low, it should attract investors, yet professionals are skeptical. Even though the financing structure is not as important as Value, Growth, and Sentiment, investors should still be careful with this decision and conduct further research if they are serious about investing in this company. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Umpqua only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Umpqua is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Umpqua. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 38 (worse than 62% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Umpqua. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 75, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 75% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 10, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 90% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 29 (less encouraging than 71% compared with investment alternatives), Umpqua has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Umpqua. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Umpqua Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Umpqua shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Umpqua. Price-to-Sales is 93 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 93% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Umpqua's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 95% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 78. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Umpqua are expected to be higher than for 93% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 93). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 97, is a buy recommendation based on Umpqua's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Umpqua based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Umpqua Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 32 (better than 32% compared with alternatives), Umpqua shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Umpqua. Sales Growth has a rank of 86 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 86% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 67. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 1, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 99% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 48, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 67% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Umpqua Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | July 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 28 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 86 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 98 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 91 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 91 (better than 91% compared with alternatives) for 2023, the company Umpqua has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Umpqua is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Umpqua. Refinancing is at 86, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 98, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 98% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 28, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 72% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 91 (better than 91% compared with alternatives), Umpqua has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Umpqua could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Umpqua Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | July 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 97 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 32 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 98 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with investment alternatives), Umpqua (Regional Banks, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Umpqua are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 97 (better than 97% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 91, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 32). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 100, is a strong buy recommendation based on Umpqua's financial characteristics. As the company Umpqua's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 97) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 32) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 91), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 97% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. ...read more
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