November 14, 2024
Top 10 Stock Upstart Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Upstart – Top 10 Stock in Artificial Intelligence & Big Data
Upstart is listed as a top 10 stock on November 14, 2024 in the market index Artificial Intelligence because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is growing above average, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 11 (11% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Upstart on November 14, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Consumer Finance |
| Index | Artificial Intelligence, NASDAQ |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Upstart Sell
| 360 METRICS | November 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 93 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 35 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 11 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Upstart are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Upstart. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 93, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. It ranks higher than 93% of competitors in the same industry. The other indicators are below average, namely the Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks.The Value Rank at 1 means that the share price of Upstart is on the high side compared with its peers regarding revenues, profits, and invested capital. The stock price is higher than for 99% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 6, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 94% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 35, indicating professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 65% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 11, Upstart is worse than 89% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Upstart shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits excellent performance, namely the above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93), it is a riskier stock investment proposition. Aside from the critical professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 35), the company is rather risky when it comes to financing (Safety Rank of 6). The negative market view on Upstart may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to join the party, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. While it is typical for growth companies to have low value, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that are expected to have high growth, the crucial question is: how much more do you pay for the stock of Upstart compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Upstart only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 35 (better than 35% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Upstart is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Upstart. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 9 (worse than 91% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 84, which means that stock research experts have found something to make them more positive about investing in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Upstart. But the Professional Investors rank is low at 39, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 61% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Market Pulse is also low at a rank of 30, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 70% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 35 (less encouraging than 65% compared with investment alternatives), Upstart has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. These are quite a few negative sentiment signals. One may want to trust the analysts that are changing their opinions. They may be early indications of better times, especially if the company is a smaller one. But If they are an extra large company, they should have more professional stockholders than are currently present. ...read more
Value Strategy: Upstart Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Upstart shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Upstart. Price-to-Sales is 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Upstart's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 1, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Upstart. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 1 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Upstart's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Upstart? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Upstart? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Upstart may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Upstart Growth Momentum high
| GROWTH METRICS | November 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 97 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 34 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 100 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 100 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 93 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Upstart shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Upstart. Sales Growth has a rank of 97 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 97% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 34% of competitors with a rank of 100, and Stock Returns with the rank of 100 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 34 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 66% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, Upstart is a good growth stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Upstart Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | November 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 63 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 15 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 1 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 6 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 6 (better than 6% compared with alternatives), the company Upstart has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Upstart is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Upstart and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 63 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 63% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 15, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with alternatives), Upstart has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Upstart are on the safer side. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Upstart Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | November 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 93 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 6 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Upstart (Consumer Finance, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Upstart are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 6, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Upstart's financial characteristics. As the company Upstart shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (99% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 93% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 93). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 6 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Upstart, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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