Fact based stock research
Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN)
US91879Q1094
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
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Vail Resorts stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 26 (worse than 74% compared with investment alternatives), Vail Resorts (Leisure Facilities, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Vail Resorts are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 37) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 60), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 26, is a hold recommendation based on Vail Resorts's financial characteristics. As the company Vail Resorts's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 37), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 60) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Leisure Facilities |
| Index | Low Emissions, Dividends USA, Energy Efficient, Low Waste, Renewables Users, Recycling |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Vail Resorts
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
|
33 |
|
30 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 73 |
|
7 |
|
49 |
|
37 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 72 |
|
88 |
|
60 |
|
60 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
29 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
18 |
|
19 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 26 (worse than 74% compared with investment alternatives), Vail Resorts (Leisure Facilities, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Vail Resorts are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 37) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 60), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 26, is a hold recommendation based on Vail Resorts's financial characteristics. As the company Vail Resorts's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 37), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 60) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
|
33 |
|
30 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 73 |
|
7 |
|
49 |
|
37 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 72 |
|
88 |
|
60 |
|
60 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 41 |
|
29 |
|
42 |
|
26 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Vail Resorts shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Vail Resorts. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 94% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 25 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 75% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Vail Resorts's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 29 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 71% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 15 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 85% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Vail Resorts's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Vail Resorts? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Vail Resorts only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 22 |
|
11 |
|
19 |
|
25 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 55 |
|
25 |
|
23 |
|
29 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 16 |
|
28 |
|
17 |
|
15 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
91 |
|
92 |
|
94 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 17 |
|
33 |
|
30 |
|
37 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 37 (better than 37% compared with alternatives), Vail Resorts shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half of the indicators are below and half above average for Vail Resorts. Profit Growth, with a rank of 67 (better than 67% of its competitors), and Capital Growth, with a rank of 78, are both positive, which is a healthy sign for positive development. But Sales Growth has only a rank of 37, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 63% of its competitors, and Stock Returns are at a rank of 11. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Stock returns that are a thing of the past can be less of a problem. Below-average revenue growth may be caused by divestments of underperforming businesses. If that is the case, then the positive developments of profit and capital growth are signs of a company with growth potential. If these are the reasons, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 58 |
|
35 |
|
54 |
|
37 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 79 |
|
53 |
|
67 |
|
67 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
10 |
|
49 |
|
78 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 67 |
|
39 |
|
29 |
|
11 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 73 |
|
7 |
|
49 |
|
37 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), the company Vail Resorts has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Vail Resorts is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Vail Resorts. Leverage is at 51, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 51% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 55, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 55, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), Vail Resorts has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Vail Resorts but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 59 |
|
72 |
|
56 |
|
51 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 69 |
|
52 |
|
54 |
|
55 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 69 |
|
82 |
|
52 |
|
55 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 72 |
|
88 |
|
60 |
|
60 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
8 |
|
19 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
39 |
|
36 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
99 |
|
22 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
22 |
|
35 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
29 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Vail Resorts from November 14, 2024.
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