March 7, 2024
Top 10 Stock Winpak Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Winpak – Top 10 Stock in Toronto Stock Exchange Index TSX Composite
Winpak is listed as a top 10 stock on March 07, 2024 in the market index TSX Composite because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. While the company shows high growth, the stock price is high yet professional investor sentiment is low, which may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior, reflected in a low stock price value. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 87 (top 87% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for Winpak on March 07, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Metal & Glass Containers |
| Index | Low Waste, TSX Composite |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Winpak Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | March 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 41 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 81 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 34 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 87 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Winpak are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Winpak. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 81, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 81% of competitors in the same industry. In addition, the consolidated Safety Rank has a safer rank of 100 which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 100% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 41 which means that the share price of Winpak is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is higher than for 59% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 34, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 66% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 87, Winpak is better positioned than 87% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, the picture is ambiguous. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 81), and the company is safely financed (Safety Rank of 100). However, professional market sentiment is low(Sentiment Rank of 34). The negative market view on Winpak may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to board the train, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. It is typical for growth companies to have low value ratings, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much more do you pay for the stock of Winpak compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one hundred minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the value rank is above 60. As market sentiment is low, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company’s future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Winpak only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 34 (better than 34% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Winpak is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and half above average for Winpak. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 15 (worse than 85% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 11, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. In addition, the Professional Investors rank is 47, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 53% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. The only positive sentiment indicator for Winpak is Market Pulse, with a rank of 89, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 89% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 34 (less encouraging than 66% compared with investment alternatives), Winpak has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Winpak Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Winpak shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Winpak. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 69 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 69% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Winpak's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 88, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 88% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 74% of alternatives (only 26% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 82% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Winpak's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Winpak Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Winpak shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Winpak. Sales Growth has a value of 76 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 76% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a value of 77 and Capital Growth with a rank of 69 means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow both profits and invested capital more than of its competitors. But Stock Returns has only a rank of 47, which means that stock returns have recently been below 53% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 81, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Winpak has only one below-average growth indicator, the stock returns. This is probably the least reliable growth indicator, because it measures company and investor expectations at the same time. The three other growth indicators, which are all positive for Winpak, are more reliable measures of growth momentum. For this reason, the company seems to be on a good trajectory, unless you think the current period is not representative, because of unique events that will not be repeated in the future. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Winpak Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | March 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 100 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 86 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 98 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Winpak has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Winpak is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Winpak. Leverage is at 100, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 100% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 86, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 98, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 98% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives), Winpak has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Winpak Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | March 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 41 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 81 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 98 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 94 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Winpak (Metal & Glass Containers, Canada) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Winpak are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 81) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 100, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 94, is a strong buy recommendation based on Winpak's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Winpak exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 41), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 81). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 100) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). ...read more
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