June 20, 2024
Top 10 Stock The a2 Milk Company Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: The a2 Milk Company – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 50
The a2 Milk Company is listed as a top 10 stock on June 20, 2024 in the market index ASX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Three consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. Only the Value Rank is below average. The investment rationale may be an investment in future growth, supported by professional market opinion. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 60 (high 60% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for The a2 Milk Company on June 20, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View The a2 Milk Company Buy
| 360 METRICS | June 20, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 89 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 57 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 61 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 60 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock The a2 Milk Company are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with all but one indicator above average for The a2 Milk Company. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 89, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 89% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank at 57 means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 57% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 61, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 61% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank is less desirable at 1, meaning that the share price of The a2 Milk Company is on the higher side compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 99% of alternative stocks in the same industry. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 60, The a2 Milk Company is better positioned than 60% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as above-average growth (Growth Rank of 89), a safe financing structure (Safety Rank of 57), and positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 61), it is a solid stock investment where growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale, also reflected by institutional investors. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much more do you pay for the stock of The a2 Milk Company compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The growth rank measures the growth momentum of the company (89% better than peers). The value rank could be the reverse reflection of that (11%). A Value Rank below that level may be assessed as expensive, a rank above that is still good value. Sometimes market sentiment just reflects the past, sometimes the reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for The a2 Milk Company positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock The a2 Milk Company is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and above average for The a2 Milk Company. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 47 (worse than 53% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50 which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in The a2 Milk Company. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 82, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive in their discussions about this company (more positive news than for 82% of competitors). Only professional investors tend to be absent with a Professional Investors rank of 48, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 52% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. But that could also be due to the size of the company. Professional investors tend to invest in XL and XXL companies. If the company is smaller than that, that fact alone may explain why there are fewer pros present. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 61 (more positive than 61% compared with investment alternatives), The a2 Milk Company has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. Since analysts are getting more optimistic and the professional communication channels are positive, it may be an indication of a company that has the difficult times behind it or the stocks’ value is improving. For medium to smaller companies, the positive sentiment indicators outshine the negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: The a2 Milk Company Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), The a2 Milk Company shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for The a2 Milk Company. Price-to-Sales is 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning The a2 Milk Company's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 5, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of The a2 Milk Company. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 3 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 92% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on The a2 Milk Company's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for The a2 Milk Company? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as The a2 Milk Company? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. The a2 Milk Company may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: The a2 Milk Company Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 89 (better than 89% compared with alternatives) for 2024, The a2 Milk Company shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for The a2 Milk Company. Sales Growth has a rank of 88 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 88% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 83. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 45, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 55% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 47, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 89, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 83% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. ...read more
Safety Strategy: The a2 Milk Company Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | June 20, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 80 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 25 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 63 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 57 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), the company The a2 Milk Company has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of The a2 Milk Company is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for The a2 Milk Company. Leverage is at a rank of 80, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 80% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 63, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 25, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), The a2 Milk Company has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for The a2 Milk Company. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: The a2 Milk Company Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | June 20, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 89 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 63 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 40 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with investment alternatives), The a2 Milk Company (Packaged Foods & Meats, New Zealand) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of The a2 Milk Company are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 89) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 57, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on The a2 Milk Company's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company The a2 Milk Company exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 89). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 57) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). ...read more
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