September 5, 2024
Top 10 Stock Aflac Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aflac – Top 10 Stock in SDG 16: Peace Justice and Strong Institutions
Aflac is listed as a top 10 stock on September 05, 2024 in the market index SDG 16 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 12 (12% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Aflac on September 05, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Life & Health Insurance |
| Index | Diversity USA, SDG 13, SDG 16, SDG 3, SDG 5, SDG 8, D.J. US Insurance, S&P 500 |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aflac Sell
| 360 METRICS | September 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 15 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 43 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 75 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 37 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 12 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aflac are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Aflac. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 75, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 75% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 15, which means that the share price of Aflac is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 43, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 37, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 63% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 12, Aflac is worse than 88% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Aflac shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 37. The negative market view on Aflac may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aflac only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 37 (better than 37% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aflac is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Aflac. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 19 (worse than 81% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 76, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Aflac. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 73, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 73% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 8, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 92% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 37 (less encouraging than 63% compared with investment alternatives), Aflac has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Aflac. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aflac Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with alternatives), Aflac shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Aflac. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 53% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 14 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 86% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Aflac's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 19 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 81% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 28 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 72% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on Aflac's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Aflac? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Aflac only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aflac Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), Aflac shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aflac. Capital Growth has a rank of 59, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 19% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 77 (above 77% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 8, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 92% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 19. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Aflac, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aflac Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | September 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 66 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 16 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 79 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 75 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2022, the company Aflac has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Aflac is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Aflac. Leverage is at a rank of 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 79, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 79% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 16, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives), Aflac has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Aflac. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Aflac Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 15 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 43 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 79 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 57 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Aflac (Life & Health Insurance, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aflac are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 15 (worse than 85% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 43) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 75), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Aflac's financial characteristics. As the company Aflac's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 15) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 43), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 75) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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