October 17, 2024
Top 10 Stock Aritzia Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aritzia – Top 10 Stock in Toronto Stock Exchange Index TSX Composite
Aritzia is listed as a top 10 stock on October 17, 2024 in the market index TSX Composite because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 58 (high 58% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Aritzia on October 17, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Apparel Retail |
| Index | TSX Composite |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aritzia Buy
| 360 METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 9 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 95 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 39 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 69 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 58 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 58 (better than 58% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aritzia are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Aritzia. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 95, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 95% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 69, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 69% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 9, which means that the share price of Aritzia is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 91% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 39, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than those of 61% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 58, Aritzia is better positioned than 58% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 95), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 69), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take 100 minus the growth rank, you arrive at a possibly minimum level for the value rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the growth rank is above 60. Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes it reflects reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aritzia positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aritzia is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators where all but one are above average for Aritzia. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 89 (better than 89% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. The Professional Investors rank is also good at 63, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 63% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 94 which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the positive side when discussing this company (more positive news than for 94% of competitors). But Analyst Opinions Change has a below-average rank of 2, which means that stock research experts are currently changing their opinions for the worse when it comes to recommending this stock. In other words, they are getting more critical of investments in Aritzia. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 69 (more positive than 69% compared with investment alternatives), Aritzia has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. This is an early sign of caution, even if the stock has significantly appreciated. If analysts change their opinions, the stock may become too expensive. If the price is on the way down, the trend may continue. This may be a stock with a good reputation and history, but it may have reached its breaking point by now. Investors should look at the Value Ranks as well. If they indicate trouble, it might just materialize in the future. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aritzia Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with alternatives), Aritzia shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Aritzia. Price-to-Sales is 25 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 75% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Aritzia's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 28, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Aritzia. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 34 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation based on Aritzia's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Aritzia? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Aritzia? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Aritzia may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aritzia Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 95 (better than 95% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Aritzia shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Aritzia. Sales Growth has a rank of 98 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 98% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 94, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 95, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 99% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 95, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aritzia Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 41 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 29 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 50 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 39 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), the company Aritzia has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aritzia is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Aritzia. Liquidity is at 50, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 50% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 29, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 71% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 41, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 59% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), Aritzia has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Aritzia Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 9 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 95 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 50 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 50 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with investment alternatives), Aritzia (Apparel Retail, Canada) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aritzia are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 39, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 95). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 50, is a buy recommendation based on Aritzia's financial characteristics. As the company Aritzia shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 9 (91% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 95% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 95). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 39 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Aritzia, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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