June 20, 2024
Top 10 Stock Ampol Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Ampol – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 50
Ampol is listed as a top 10 stock on June 20, 2024 in the market index ASX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 12 (12% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Ampol on June 20, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Ampol Sell
| 360 METRICS | June 20, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 82 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 17 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 32 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 12 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Ampol are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Ampol. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 82, which means that the share price of Ampol is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 82% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 5, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 17, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 83% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 68% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 32. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 12, Ampol is worse than 88% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Ampol shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 82. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 5), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 17), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 32) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Ampol is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of Ampol. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Ampol only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 32 (better than 32% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Ampol is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Ampol. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 15 (worse than 85% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which indicates a shift in stock research experts opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic about stock investments in Ampol. Even better, the Professional Investors rank is 50, meaning that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 50% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Furthermore, Market Pulse has a rank of 67, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are upbeat when discussing this company (more positive news than for 67% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 32 (less encouraging than 68% compared with investment alternatives), Ampol has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. While analysts are still critical of the company, some are changing their minds. In addition, the professional news channels are optimistic, and many institutional investors have already bought stock in the company. These are encouraging signals, despite the still lower level of analyst recommendations. They may be due to a problematic past, and about to change. The positive sentiment signals are stronger than the negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Ampol Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Ampol shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Ampol. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 91, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 91% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Ampol's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 72% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 96 (dividends are expected to be higher than 96% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 83% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Ampol to 17. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 82, is a buy recommendation based on Ampol's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Ampol Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 5 (better than 5% compared with alternatives), Ampol shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Ampol. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 12, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 88% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 30, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 16. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 84% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 65, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 65% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 5, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Ampol, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Ampol Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | June 20, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 10 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 41 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 29 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 17 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 17 (better than 17% compared with alternatives), the company Ampol has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Ampol is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Ampol. Liquidity is at 29, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 71% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 10, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 90% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 41 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 59% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Ampol has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Ampol Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | June 20, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 82 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 29 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 18 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Ampol (Oil & Gas Refining, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ampol are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 82 (better than 82% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 5), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 17), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 18, is a sell recommendation based on Ampol's financial characteristics. As the company Ampol's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 82) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 5) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 17), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 82% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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